General Market Conditions |
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 | Threat Level Elevated. Last week's Code Orange bear alert remains active. Some important Indicators are still negative. Bears have not yet been sighted, but they are out there. Based on purely technical factors we estimate about 75 percent of the blue chips to be overvalued. This is not much different from last month. Six months ago, we thought 58 percent of these issues were overvalued. |
| From the General Report dated 11/8/2010: The major indicators are consistent, even though they are not in perfect agreement. Both proclaim the lack of any strong direction, as they are in the fair price zone. Irrational exuberance has taken hold of the market, judging from the great amount of dip buying by the public. The aggregate RSI of the blue chips is currently 54.69. The indicator is in mildly bearish territory. If the value goes over 55 it might be taken as a general over-bought alert. Phase is the price as a percentage of 200 bar moving average. The average phase of the NYSE Blue Chips is 0.09. Even though it leans slightly to the bearish, this indicator is nominally neutral. |
| The Negative Volume Index represents the proportion of volume transacted on falling prices. It indicates buying on the dips, and when applied to an individual issue, a high value may reveal insider accumulation or so-called smart money. So many analysts treat the NVI as a contrarian buy signal when it is high. But such a treatment does not differentiate between smart money and the ordinary crowd that buys on dips during periods of excessive optimism. We have found the NVI to act in a diametrically opposite manner than it is supposed, when it is applied to the individual elements of aggregate data before aggregation. So in the chart on the mouse rollover above, high values of the NVI indicate excessive optimism, when crowds of speculators are buying the dips without any actual reason. The contrary situation is when almost no one is buying on minor dips, indicating that the crowd believes conditions will get even worse. Such periods of general dispair are the very best buying opportunities, and they are tinted green on the chart. |
Recent News Items:In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE) |
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