General Market Conditions |
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 | General Market Conditions remain roughly neutral. Based on purely technical factors we estimate about 50 percent of the blue chips to be overvalued. This is not much different from last month. Six months ago, we thought 33 percent of these issues were overvalued. |
| From the General Report dated 12/24/2008: Amazingly, three of the most powerful indicators are in perfect agreement about market sentiment. These are in the middle of the range, so it would appear that the market is not over or under priced. The aggregate RSI of the blue chips is currently 51.75. This number is essentially neutral, indicating the market to be neither over or under priced. Values above 50 are thought to be more bearish, while those under 50 are on the bullish side. However, the present level is not significant enough to be a strong indicator either way. Phase is the price as a percentage of 200 bar moving average. The average phase of the NYSE Blue Chips is -0.24. The indicator is neutral, although slightly on the favorable side. |
| The Negative Volume Index represents the proportion of volume transacted on falling prices. It indicates buying on the dips, and when applied to an individual issue, a high value may reveal insider accumulation or so-called smart money. So many analysts treat the NVI as a contrarian buy signal when it is high. But such a treatment does not differentiate between smart money and the ordinary crowd that buys on dips during periods of excessive optimism. We have found the NVI to act in a diametrically opposite manner than it is supposed, when it is applied to the individual elements of aggregate data before aggregation. So in the chart on the mouse rollover above, high values of the NVI indicate excessive optimism, when crowds of speculators are buying the dips without any actual reason. The contrary situation is when almost no one is buying on minor dips, indicating that the crowd believes conditions will get even worse. Such periods of general dispair are the very best buying opportunities, and they are tinted green on the chart. |
Recent News Items:Friday, January 02, 2009: We have news on Verizon, ticker symbol VZ. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning C.R. Bard, Inc. and Raytheon Company.From the News Archive: (1/2/2009 ) Bad news came from Wisconsin Energy Corporation, Intel, AT and T, and Williams Companies, Inc.. |
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