General Market Conditions

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General Market Conditions The Level Purple Bear Market Warning continues. Almost all of the most effective indicators are negative, with only a small bit of improvement since last month. More than 91 percent of blue chip stocks are overvalued according to technical factors. This is a substantial plunge from last month, when we thought 41 out of 100 blue chip issues were over bought.
From the General Report dated 3/10/2010:
The market outlook is distinctly bearish. The major indicators are consistent, even though they are not in perfect agreement. Taken together, they are somewhat pessimistic.

Irrational exuberance has taken hold of the market, judging from the great amount of dip buying by the public.

The aggregate RSI of the blue chips is currently 54.71. The indicator is in mildly bearish territory. If the value goes over 55 it might be taken as a general over-bought alert.

Phase is the price as a percentage of 200 bar moving average. The average phase of the NYSE Blue Chips is 0.14. The Phase 200 Indicator is in the range warning of a possible correction.



The Negative Volume Index represents the proportion of volume transacted on falling prices. It indicates buying on the dips, and when applied to an individual issue, a high value may reveal insider accumulation or so-called smart money. So many analysts treat the NVI as a contrarian buy signal when it is high. But such a treatment does not differentiate between smart money and the ordinary crowd that buys on dips during periods of excessive optimism. We have found the NVI to act in a diametrically opposite manner than it is supposed, when it is applied to the individual elements of aggregate data before aggregation. So in the chart on the mouse rollover above, high values of the NVI indicate excessive optimism, when crowds of speculators are buying the dips without any actual reason. The contrary situation is when almost no one is buying on minor dips, indicating that the crowd believes conditions will get even worse. Such periods of general dispair are the very best buying opportunities, and they are tinted green on the chart.


Recent News Items:
In the news, Thursday, March 18, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with Nike Footwear, ticker symbol NKE. Also, there are breaking events concerning Dupont (DD) and Mylan Inc. (MYL)


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