HON Periodic Wave Oscillators

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From the Update 3/18/2010: The strongest frequency, according to classical frequency analysis, is an oscillation with a length of 14 trading sessions.

Frequency Analysis based on Monthly Comb

HON:  Frequency Analysis based on Monthly Comb

Even a casual examination of historical price lines seems to reveal cycles or regular short term fluctuations that continue repeating. Through the years, technicians have expended much effort to measure and exploit these cycles. It would appear simple enough to do a frequency analysis on the time series. But the cycles or periods that seem so easy to see in the price data, have proven to be surprisingly difficult to measure by classical methods. The classical methods apply to stationary cycles of exactly regular period. We can easily remove the trends from historical price data to make the series stationary. However, attempts to exploit the market cycles are foiled by the deviation from strictly periodic behavior required by ordinary analysis.

One factor in the behaviour of market fluctuations is "Anticipation". When speculators detect a cycle in prices, they will buy earlier before the peak, and sell earlier before the dip. This phenomena causes an increase in frequency, and eventually a breakup of the established cycle. Traditional frequency analysis methods such as the Fourier Transform, break down badly attempting to deal with these irregularities.

Wilder estimated that there was an important period of about 28 trading sessions. The half cycle of this period (14 sessions) is a default factor in many of the technical indicators. We have found this to be a reasonable figure, even in today's markets, but there is significant variation between issues. Some companies just seem to have faster or slower cycles for one reason or another, and the indicators may be more accurate when fitted to the situation.

New methods had to be invented to deal with the seeming mathematical absurdity in the notion of non-periodic cycles.




General Market Conditions

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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Honeywell:

Frequency from Monthly Comb Filter
Representative Cycle (Trading Sessions) = 18.00
Sawtooth = 49.15
Peak TypeAvg. CycleMedian CycleCycle ModeCycle Amplitude
High17.4828.0018.009.31 %
Low16.8429.0018.0011.10 %
Recent HighPriceRecent LowPrice Cycle
Monday, February 08, 201036.5833
Tuesday, January 19, 201042.5223
Friday, December 18, 200938.8534
Monday, December 14, 200940.9936
Friday, October 30, 200935.3420
Thursday, October 22, 200937.9424
Friday, October 02, 200935.0562
Friday, September 18, 200939.5569


Fourier Transform after Digital Filter M

Cycle LengthFourier Amplitude
120.64
140.49
180.41
260.36
230.30
290.27
320.23
360.19
380.17
410.13
530.13



Frequency Analysis based on Quarterly Comb

HON:  Frequency Analysis based on Quarterly Comb

Frequency from Quarterly Comb Filter
Representative Cycle (Trading Sessions) = 83.00
Sawtooth = 46.28
Peak TypeAvg. CycleMedian CycleCycle ModeCycle Amplitude
High44.0090.0082.0018.98 %
Low48.6171.0055.0018.60 %
Recent HighPriceRecent LowPrice Cycle
Tuesday, January 19, 201042.5283
Tuesday, July 07, 200928.6183
Friday, September 18, 200939.5569
Monday, March 09, 200922.4672
Thursday, June 11, 200934.93108
Thursday, November 20, 200822.6691
Tuesday, January 06, 200934.51160
Tuesday, July 15, 200845.0880


Fourier Transform after Digital Filter Q

Cycle LengthFourier Amplitude
140.26
260.22
170.22
190.22
220.16
280.15
530.14
320.14
1710.14
930.13
360.12



Frequency Analysis based on Yearly Comb

Frequency Analysis based on Yearly Comb of Honeywell

Representative Cycle (Trading Sessions) = 0.00
Sawtooth = 45.05
Peak TypeAvg. CycleMedian CycleCycle ModeCycle Amplitude
High0.000.000.000.00 %
Low0.000.000.000.00 %
Recent HighPriceRecent LowPrice Cycle
Monday, March 09, 200922.46322
Monday, May 19, 200858.66525
Monday, November 26, 200749.66526
Tuesday, April 18, 200639.81434
Friday, October 21, 200529.61251
Wednesday, July 28, 200433.07575
Monday, October 25, 200428.12514
Tuesday, April 16, 200233.37333


Fourier Transform on Raw Closing Prices

Cycle LengthFourier Amplitude
5123.37
6832.94
3722.48
3152.05
4551.85
101.74
141.40
4101.36
2411.12
1640.98
1370.97




Breaking News:

Friday, March 19, 2010: We have news on American Tower Corporation, ticker symbol AMT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. and AT and T.

From the News Archive: (3/19/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Electronic Data Systems. Meanwhile, bad news came from Sempra Energy, Mylan Inc., and TECO Energy, Inc..



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Average Sawtooth based on Monthly Combo

HON:  Average Sawtooth based on Monthly Combo

Average Sawtooth based on Bi-weekly Combo

Average Sawtooth based on Bi-weeklyly Combo of Honeywell



The Sawtooth statistic measures the time from each periodic high to the next periodic low, in comparison to the time from that low to the next high point . The mid-point, corresponding to a perfect sine wave, is 50 percent. Values less than this indicate the sell slope is steeper than the buy slope, while values over 50 percent show the opposite.

Bullish or bearish moods may be reflected in the steepness of the buying and selling slopes, particularly as they change through time. The chart represents the sawtooth percentage of (approximately) monthly cycles over the past year, and of the (approximately) bi-weekly cycles, averaged over the past six months.

.
Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals at 75 and 25Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 6 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 1.96 % = -0.79 %-6.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.43 % = -0.03 %-1.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.23 % = 0.64 %81.64 %
Sell Signals - 7 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 5.43 % minus 1.96 % = 3.47 %29.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 2.73 % minus 0.43 % = 2.30 %116.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose 2.49 % minus 0.23 % = 2.25 %286.24 %
.
Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle CrossingSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 60 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.33 % minus 1.96 % = 0.38 %3.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.43 % = 0.24 %12.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.23 % = 0.23 %28.95 %
Sell Signals - 60 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.29 % minus 1.96 % = -0.66 %-5.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.43 % = -0.33 %-16.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.23 % = -0.34 %-43.25 %
.
Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals at 70 and 30Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 1.96 % = -1.81 %-15.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.77 % minus 0.43 % = -1.20 %-60.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.23 % = -0.39 %-50.04 %
Sell Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.21 % minus 1.96 % = 2.26 %19.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 3.50 % minus 0.43 % = 3.07 %155.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 2.66 % minus 0.23 % = 2.42 %307.74 %
.
Projection of Representative Monthly CycleSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 203 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.66 % minus 1.96 % = -0.29 %-2.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.43 % = -0.15 %-7.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.23 % = -0.29 %-36.76 %
Sell Signals - 229 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.35 % minus 1.96 % = -0.60 %-5.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.43 % = -0.14 %-7.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.23 % = -0.06 %-7.41 %
.
Projection of BiWeekly Modal CyclesSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 435 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.69 % minus 1.96 % = -0.27 %-2.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.43 % = -0.19 %-9.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.23 % = -0.13 %-15.98 %
Sell Signals - 462 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.53 % minus 1.96 % = -0.43 %-3.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.43 % = -0.07 %-3.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.23 % = -0.20 %-26.02 %
.
The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.38 % from the Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing,and the best sell signal for was -0.66 % from the Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.24 % from the Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing,and the best sell signal was -0.33 % from the Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.64 % from the Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals at 75 and 25,and the best sell signal was -0.34 % from the Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing.



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