Frequency Analysis based on Monthly Comb
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
It is obvious from inspection of price lines, that many seem to contain cycles that may persist in repeating for a long time. Through the years, technicians have expended much effort to measure and exploit these cycles. It would appear simple enough to do a frequency analysis on the time series. But the cycles or periods that seem so easy to see in the price data, have proven to be surprisingly difficult to measure by classical methods. The classical methods apply to stationary cycles of exactly regular period. We can easily remove the trends from historical price data to make the series stationary. However, attempts to exploit the market cycles are foiled by the deviation from strictly periodic behavior required by ordinary analysis. One factor in the behaviour of market fluctuations is "Anticipation". When speculators detect a cycle in prices, they will buy earlier before the peak, and sell earlier before the dip. This phenomena causes an increase in frequency, and eventually a breakup of the established cycle. Traditional frequency analysis methods such as the Fourier Transform, break down badly attempting to deal with these irregularities. Wilder estimated that there was an important period of about 28 trading sessions. The half cycle of this period (14 sessions) is a default factor in many of the technical indicators. We have found this to be a reasonable figure, even in today's markets, but there is significant variation between issues. Some companies just seem to have faster or slower cycles for one reason or another, and the indicators may be more accurate when fitted to the situation. New methods had to be invented to deal with the seeming mathematical absurdity in the notion of non-periodic cycles. |
| 
Subscribe More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for AOL Time Warner: |
Frequency from Monthly Comb Filter
Representative Cycle (Trading Sessions) = 30.00
Sawtooth = 49.78
| Peak Type | Avg. Cycle | Median Cycle | Cycle Mode | Cycle Amplitude | | High | 16.86 | 29.00 | 42.00 | 23.42 % | | Low | 18.15 | 31.00 | 25.00 | 18.16 % |
| Recent High | Price | Recent Low | Price | Cycle | | | Thursday, January 28, 2010 | 26.61 | 62 | | Wednesday, November 18, 2009 | 32.38 | | | 19 | | | Wednesday, October 28, 2009 | 29.19 | 23 | | Thursday, October 22, 2009 | 31.57 | | | 95 | | | Friday, September 25, 2009 | 28.24 | 57 | | Tuesday, June 09, 2009 | 25.97 | | | 21 | | | Tuesday, July 07, 2009 | 22.96 | 30 | | Friday, May 08, 2009 | 24.50 | | | 16 |
Fourier Transform after Digital Filter M | Cycle Length | Fourier Amplitude | | 8 | 0.83 | | 13 | 0.58 | | 16 | 0.42 | | 18 | 0.37 | | 26 | 0.31 | | 22 | 0.31 | | 20 | 0.31 | | 33 | 0.24 | | 30 | 0.23 | | 42 | 0.12 | | 65 | 0.12 |
|
Frequency Analysis based on Quarterly Comb
Frequency from Quarterly Comb Filter
Representative Cycle (Trading Sessions) = 67.00
Sawtooth = 53.15
| Peak Type | Avg. Cycle | Median Cycle | Cycle Mode | Cycle Amplitude | | High | 49.57 | 83.00 | 67.00 | 30.32 % | | Low | 53.33 | 75.00 | 67.00 | 21.68 % |
| Recent High | Price | Recent Low | Price | Cycle | | | Thursday, January 28, 2010 | 26.61 | 227 | | Wednesday, November 18, 2009 | 32.38 | | | 220 | | | Thursday, March 05, 2009 | 15.22 | 70 | | Tuesday, January 06, 2009 | 23.48 | | | 87 | | | Thursday, November 20, 2008 | 14.99 | 93 | | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 | 35.41 | | | 70 | | | Friday, July 11, 2008 | 29.11 | 73 | | Thursday, May 22, 2008 | 34.76 | | | 67 |
Fourier Transform after Digital Filter Q | Cycle Length | Fourier Amplitude | | 8 | 0.46 | | 14 | 0.26 | | 17 | 0.22 | | 25 | 0.22 | | 20 | 0.18 | | 178 | 0.17 | | 22 | 0.15 | | 124 | 0.13 | | 95 | 0.13 | | 683 | 0.12 | | 33 | 0.12 |
|
|
|
Frequency Analysis based on Yearly Comb
Representative Cycle (Trading Sessions) = 0.00
Sawtooth = 60.65
| Peak Type | Avg. Cycle | Median Cycle | Cycle Mode | Cycle Amplitude | | High | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % | | Low | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % |
| Recent High | Price | Recent Low | Price | Cycle | | | Thursday, November 20, 2008 | 14.99 | 593 | | Tuesday, September 02, 2008 | 35.41 | | | 409 | | Thursday, January 18, 2007 | 47.53 | | | 335 | | | Monday, July 17, 2006 | 32.45 | 258 | | Friday, September 16, 2005 | 38.56 | | | 182 | | | Thursday, July 07, 2005 | 33.06 | 227 | | Tuesday, December 28, 2004 | 39.77 | | | 233 | | | Thursday, August 12, 2004 | 31.74 | 370 |
Fourier Transform on Raw Closing Prices | Cycle Length | Fourier Amplitude | | 6 | 7.92 | | 512 | 6.12 | | 819 | 5.52 | | 683 | 4.70 | | 13 | 4.52 | | 178 | 3.74 | | 195 | 3.47 | | 585 | 3.17 | | 186 | 3.05 | | 293 | 2.71 | | 341 | 2.59 |
|
| Breaking News: In the news, Friday, March 19, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with Cincinnati Financial Corporation, ticker symbol CINF. Also, there are breaking events concerning Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) and Electronic Data Systems (EDS)
|
|
| |
Average Sawtooth based on Monthly Combo
| |
Average Sawtooth based on Bi-weekly Combo
Comparing the length of time from high points to successive lowpoints, against the corresponding time span from the lows to the following periodic highs, gives us the Sawtooth Indicator. The mid-point, corresponding to a perfect sine wave, is 50 percent. Values less than this indicate the sell slope is steeper than the buy slope, while values over 50 percent show the opposite. The Sawtooth Statistic gives a clue to the general mood of the markets, functioning as a sort of sentiment indicator. The chart represents the sawtooth percentage of (approximately) monthly cycles over the past year, and of the (approximately) bi-weekly cycles, averaged over the past six months.
| . | | | Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals at 75 and 25 | Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation | Annualized % | | Buy Signals - 0 instances | | | | Sell Signals - 0 instances | | . | | | Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing | Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation | Annualized % | | Buy Signals - 14 instances | | | | Future30SesAvgClose | 2.10 % minus 3.74 % = -1.65 % | -13.94 % | | Future5SesAvgClose | 0.70 % minus 0.73 % = -0.03 % | -1.58 % | | Future2SesAvgClose | 0.53 % minus 0.37 % = 0.17 % | 20.96 % | | Sell Signals - 13 instances | | Future30SesAvgClose | 5.06 % minus 3.74 % = 1.32 % | 11.17 % | | Future5SesAvgClose | 1.35 % minus 0.73 % = 0.62 % | 31.51 % | | Future2SesAvgClose | 1.26 % minus 0.37 % = 0.90 % | 113.86 % | | . | | | Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals at 70 and 30 | Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation | Annualized % | | Buy Signals - 2 instances | | | | Future30SesAvgClose | 2.20 % minus 3.74 % = -1.54 % | -13.07 % | | Future5SesAvgClose | 7.24 % minus 0.73 % = 6.51 % | 330.67 % | | Future2SesAvgClose | 4.18 % minus 0.37 % = 3.81 % | 483.74 % | | Sell Signals - 4 instances | | Future30SesAvgClose | 0.20 % minus 3.74 % = -3.55 % | -30.03 % | | Future5SesAvgClose | 2.70 % minus 0.73 % = 1.97 % | 99.95 % | | Future2SesAvgClose | 2.70 % minus 0.37 % = 2.34 % | 296.76 % | | . | | | Projection of Representative Monthly Cycle | Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation | Annualized % | | Buy Signals - 83 instances | | | | Future30SesAvgClose | 4.07 % minus 3.74 % = 0.33 % | 2.77 % | | Future5SesAvgClose | 1.33 % minus 0.73 % = 0.60 % | 30.43 % | | Future2SesAvgClose | 0.74 % minus 0.37 % = 0.37 % | 47.62 % | | Sell Signals - 90 instances | | Future30SesAvgClose | 3.16 % minus 3.74 % = -0.59 % | -4.97 % | | Future5SesAvgClose | -0.38 % minus 0.73 % = -1.11 % | -56.26 % | | Future2SesAvgClose | -0.48 % minus 0.37 % = -0.85 % | -107.73 % | | . | | | Projection of BiWeekly Modal Cycles | Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation | Annualized % | | Buy Signals - 175 instances | | | | Future30SesAvgClose | 4.03 % minus 3.74 % = 0.29 % | 2.42 % | | Future5SesAvgClose | 0.92 % minus 0.73 % = 0.19 % | 9.42 % | | Future2SesAvgClose | 0.43 % minus 0.37 % = 0.07 % | 8.31 % | | Sell Signals - 165 instances | | Future30SesAvgClose | 3.70 % minus 3.74 % = -0.04 % | -0.37 % | | Future5SesAvgClose | 1.05 % minus 0.73 % = 0.32 % | 16.27 % | | Future2SesAvgClose | 0.66 % minus 0.37 % = 0.30 % | 37.60 % | | . | | | | |
| The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.33 % from the Projection of Representative Monthly Cycle,and the best sell signal for was -3.74 % from the Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals at 75 and 25. | | For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 6.51 % from the Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals at 70 and 30,and the best sell signal was -1.11 % from the Projection of Representative Monthly Cycle. | | The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 3.81 % from the Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals at 70 and 30,and the best sell signal was -0.85 % from the Projection of Representative Monthly Cycle. |
Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page
For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for AOL Time Warner
Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.
Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.
Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money.
These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2008 by Stock-Predictions.ComThis site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
| |
