Frequency Analysis based on Monthly Comb
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Even a casual examination of historical price lines seems to reveal cycles or regular short term fluctuations that continue repeating. Through the years, technicians have expended much effort to measure and exploit these cycles. It would appear simple enough to do a frequency analysis on the time series. But the cycles or periods that seem so easy to see in the price data, have proven to be surprisingly difficult to measure by classical methods. The classical methods apply to stationary cycles of exactly regular period. We can easily remove the trends from historical price data to make the series stationary. However, attempts to exploit the market cycles are foiled by the deviation from strictly periodic behavior required by ordinary analysis. One factor in the behaviour of market fluctuations is "Anticipation". When speculators detect a cycle in prices, they will buy earlier before the peak, and sell earlier before the dip. This phenomena causes an increase in frequency, and eventually a breakup of the established cycle. Traditional frequency analysis methods such as the Fourier Transform, break down badly attempting to deal with these irregularities. Wilder estimated that there was an important period of about 28 trading sessions. The half cycle of this period (14 sessions) is a default factor in many of the technical indicators. We have found this to be a reasonable figure, even in today's markets, but there is significant variation between issues. Some companies just seem to have faster or slower cycles for one reason or another, and the indicators may be more accurate when fitted to the situation. New methods had to be invented to deal with the seeming mathematical absurdity in the notion of non-periodic cycles. |
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Frequency from Monthly Comb Filter
Representative Cycle (Trading Sessions) = 23.00
Sawtooth = 47.51
| Peak Type | Avg. Cycle | Median Cycle | Cycle Mode | Cycle Amplitude | | High | 16.81 | 30.00 | 23.00 | 8.08 % | | Low | 16.94 | 31.00 | 20.00 | 6.59 % |
| Recent High | Price | Recent Low | Price | Cycle | | | Tuesday, February 09, 2010 | 47.70 | 66 | | Tuesday, January 19, 2010 | 50.29 | | | 62 | | | Tuesday, November 03, 2009 | 42.50 | 21 | | Monday, October 19, 2009 | 44.61 | | | 23 | | | Monday, October 05, 2009 | 43.31 | 94 | | Wednesday, September 16, 2009 | 44.92 | | | 13 | | Thursday, August 27, 2009 | 45.53 | | | 80 | | | Thursday, May 21, 2009 | 36.10 | 52 |
Fourier Transform after Digital Filter M | Cycle Length | Fourier Amplitude | | 9 | 0.75 | | 11 | 0.65 | | 13 | 0.51 | | 18 | 0.43 | | 16 | 0.40 | | 21 | 0.38 | | 27 | 0.28 | | 23 | 0.28 | | 25 | 0.27 | | 31 | 0.24 | | 29 | 0.21 |
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Frequency Analysis based on Quarterly Comb
Frequency from Quarterly Comb Filter
Representative Cycle (Trading Sessions) = 98.00
Sawtooth = 50.10
| Peak Type | Avg. Cycle | Median Cycle | Cycle Mode | Cycle Amplitude | | High | 46.19 | 89.00 | 43.00 | 13.68 % | | Low | 49.69 | 80.00 | 78.00 | 12.51 % |
| Recent High | Price | Recent Low | Price | Cycle | | Tuesday, January 19, 2010 | 50.29 | | | 98 | | | Tuesday, November 03, 2009 | 42.50 | 115 | | Thursday, August 27, 2009 | 45.53 | | | 148 | | | Thursday, May 21, 2009 | 36.10 | 52 | | | Monday, March 09, 2009 | 35.40 | 98 | | Tuesday, January 27, 2009 | 44.13 | | | 103 | | | Wednesday, October 15, 2008 | 35.89 | 59 | | Thursday, August 28, 2008 | 44.81 | | | 68 |
Fourier Transform after Digital Filter Q | Cycle Length | Fourier Amplitude | | 11 | 0.38 | | 13 | 0.32 | | 16 | 0.23 | | 141 | 0.22 | | 20 | 0.19 | | 23 | 0.17 | | 29 | 0.16 | | 27 | 0.15 | | 45 | 0.15 | | 31 | 0.15 | | 57 | 0.13 |
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Frequency Analysis based on Yearly Comb
Representative Cycle (Trading Sessions) = 0.00
Sawtooth = 43.26
| Peak Type | Avg. Cycle | Median Cycle | Cycle Mode | Cycle Amplitude | | High | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % | | Low | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % |
| Recent High | Price | Recent Low | Price | Cycle | | | Monday, March 09, 2009 | 35.40 | 242 | | Thursday, December 20, 2007 | 46.77 | | | 173 | | | Monday, March 24, 2008 | 40.49 | 151 | | Tuesday, April 17, 2007 | 46.15 | | | 800 | | | Wednesday, August 15, 2007 | 39.03 | 819 | | Tuesday, February 10, 2004 | 29.26 | | | 430 | | | Thursday, May 13, 2004 | 25.67 | 456 | | Tuesday, May 28, 2002 | 21.51 | | | 904 |
Fourier Transform on Raw Closing Prices | Cycle Length | Fourier Amplitude | | 683 | 2.60 | | 819 | 1.78 | | 372 | 1.78 | | 512 | 1.60 | | 11 | 1.46 | | 585 | 1.46 | | 455 | 1.35 | | 341 | 1.27 | | 410 | 1.20 | | 315 | 1.18 | | 241 | 0.95 |
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| Breaking News: Wednesday, March 10, 2010: We have news on Philip Morris, ticker symbol MO. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident.
Also, there are breaking events concerning PNC Financial Services and NiSource Inc..
From the News Archive: (3/10/2010 ) Bad news came from CenterPoint Energy, Inc., Vulcan Materials Company, Best Buy Co., Inc., and Avon Products, Inc..
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Average Sawtooth based on Monthly Combo
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Average Sawtooth based on Bi-weekly Combo
A comparison of the average distance (in time) from each periodic high to to next periodic low, against the distance to the following high point, yields the Sawtooth Statistic. The mid-point, corresponding to a perfect sine wave, is 50 percent. Values less than this indicate the sell slope is steeper than the buy slope, while values over 50 percent show the opposite. This is supposed to indicate the degree of fear or greed. The chart represents the sawtooth percentage of (approximately) monthly cycles over the past year, and of the (approximately) bi-weekly cycles, averaged over the past six months.
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