Moving Average Indicators for AA

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From the Weekend Report 3/5/2010: After increasing the spread over the week, AA is now 9.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average.

AA: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Alcoa Inc:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to AA stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for AA.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




AA: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Texas Instruments Incorporated and Convergys Corporation.

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Amgen, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Coach, Inc., Fluor Corporation (NEW), and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.96 % minus 0.79 % = 1.17 %9.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.16 % = 0.36 %18.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.08 % = 0.23 %28.79 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.79 % = 0.09 %0.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.16 % = 0.15 %7.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.08 % = 0.55 %70.20 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 220 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.79 % = -0.11 %-0.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.16 % = 0.01 %0.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %3.58 %
Sell Signals - 220 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.79 % = -0.46 %-3.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.16 % = 0.02 %1.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.08 % = 0.09 %11.58 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 59 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.36 % minus 0.79 % = 0.57 %4.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.16 % = -0.11 %-5.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.08 % = -0.05 %-5.81 %
Sell Signals - 59 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.79 % = -0.30 %-2.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.16 % = -0.23 %-11.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.08 % = -0.13 %-16.77 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 658 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.79 % = 0.37 %3.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.16 % = 0.08 %3.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.08 % = 0.09 %11.87 %
Sell Signals - 658 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.79 % = 0.29 %2.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.16 % = 0.02 %1.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.08 % = 0.02 %2.34 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 919 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.79 % = -0.02 %-0.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.16 % = -0.06 %-3.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.08 % = -0.05 %-5.91 %
Sell Signals - 918 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.79 % = -0.03 %-0.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.16 % = -0.07 %-3.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.06 %-8.06 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 377 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 0.79 % = 0.18 %1.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.16 % = 0.13 %6.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.08 % = 0.16 %20.19 %
Sell Signals - 378 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.79 % = -0.05 %-0.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.16 % = -0.20 %-10.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.08 % = -0.19 %-24.53 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 235 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.33 % minus 0.79 % = 1.54 %13.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.16 % = 0.23 %11.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.08 % = 0.23 %28.96 %
Sell Signals - 236 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.81 % minus 0.79 % = 1.02 %8.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.16 % = -0.29 %-14.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.08 % = -0.28 %-35.61 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.19 % minus 0.79 % = 1.40 %11.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.16 % = 0.04 %2.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.08 % = -0.02 %-2.89 %
Sell Signals - 39 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.79 % = -1.09 %-9.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.16 % = -0.24 %-12.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.08 % = -0.25 %-32.23 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 242 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.79 % = -0.53 %-4.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.16 % = -0.37 %-18.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.08 % = -0.31 %-39.54 %
Sell Signals - 217 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.21 % minus 0.79 % = 0.42 %3.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.16 % = 0.42 %21.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.08 % = 0.31 %39.36 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.54 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.09 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.36 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.29 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.23 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.28 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..



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Moving Average Analysis for AA Stock Prices