Moving Average Analysis of ACAS

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with ACAS 46.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

ACAS: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on ACAS stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ACAS.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of American Capital Ltd.

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MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 8 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.62 % minus 1.41 % = 2.22 %	18.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.61 % minus 0.27 % = -0.88 %	-44.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.13 % = -0.31 %	-39.79 %
Sell Signals - 8 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.09 % minus 1.41 % = -0.32 %	-2.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.81 % minus 0.27 % = 0.54 %	27.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.45 % minus 0.13 % = 0.33 %	41.64 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 85 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 1.41 % = -1.03 %	-8.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.27 % = -0.06 %	-3.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.13 % = -0.25 %	-31.63 %
Sell Signals - 85 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.45 % minus 1.41 % = 0.04 %	0.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.63 % minus 0.27 % = 1.36 %	69.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.27 % minus 0.13 % = 1.15 %	145.66 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.79 % minus 1.41 % = 2.38 %	20.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.32 % minus 0.27 % = 1.06 %	53.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.13 % = 0.22 %	28.22 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 1.41 % = -1.16 %	-9.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.07 % minus 0.27 % = 0.80 %	40.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.11 % minus 0.13 % = 0.98 %	124.72 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 300 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 1.41 % = -1.32 %	-11.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.38 % minus 0.27 % = -0.65 %	-33.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.27 % minus 0.13 % = -0.39 %	-49.72 %
Sell Signals - 300 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 1.41 % = -1.20 %	-10.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.27 % = -0.37 %	-18.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.17 % minus 0.13 % = -0.30 %	-37.64 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 435 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.91 % minus 1.41 % = 0.50 %	4.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.62 % minus 0.27 % = 0.35 %	17.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.13 % = 0.25 %	32.36 %
Sell Signals - 435 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.65 % minus 1.41 % = 0.24 %	2.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.27 % = 0.05 %	2.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.13 % = 0.16 %	20.41 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 172 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.39 % minus 1.41 % = -1.80 %	-15.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.68 % minus 0.27 % = 0.41 %	20.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.13 % = 0.70 %	89.10 %
Sell Signals - 171 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.70 % minus 1.41 % = -2.11 %	-17.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.27 % = -0.32 %	-16.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.13 % = -0.10 %	-13.08 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 127 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.56 % minus 1.41 % = -2.97 %	-25.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.70 % minus 0.27 % = -0.97 %	-49.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.36 % minus 0.13 % = -0.48 %	-61.54 %
Sell Signals - 127 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.51 % minus 1.41 % = -1.92 %	-16.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.27 % = 0.17 %	8.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.13 % = 0.23 %	28.58 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 9 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.16 % minus 1.41 % = 1.75 %	14.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.12 % minus 0.27 % = -1.39 %	-70.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.78 % minus 0.13 % = -0.91 %	-115.03 %
Sell Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.66 % minus 1.41 % = -2.07 %	-17.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.02 % minus 0.27 % = -1.29 %	-65.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.20 % minus 0.13 % = -0.32 %	-41.23 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 109 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.49 % minus 1.41 % = 0.08 %	0.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.27 % = -0.19 %	-9.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.13 % = -0.05 %	-6.42 %
Sell Signals - 90 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.08 % minus 1.41 % = 0.67 %	5.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 0.27 % = 0.34 %	17.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 0.13 % = 0.42 %	53.83 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.38 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.11 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.06 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.29 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.70 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.32 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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