Moving Average Indicators for ACG

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

ACG: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ACG stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ACG.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of ACM Income Fund
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Pitney Bowes Inc., ticker symbol PBI. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. and Pinnacle West Capital Corporation.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) A favorable event happened at The Travelers Companies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fiserv, Inc., MeadWestvaco Corp., and Nicor Inc..




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.30 % minus 0.60 % = -1.90 %-16.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.12 % = -0.61 %-30.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.06 % = -0.14 %-17.19 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.60 % = -0.62 %-5.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.12 % = 0.05 %2.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.06 % = -0.02 %-3.07 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 148 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.60 % = 0.06 %0.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.12 % = 0.16 %8.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.06 % = 0.20 %25.22 %
Sell Signals - 149 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.60 % = 0.04 %0.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.12 % = -0.13 %-6.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.06 % = -0.12 %-15.15 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.40 % minus 0.60 % = -2.00 %-16.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.12 % = 0.04 %2.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.06 % = 0.02 %2.44 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.89 % minus 0.60 % = -1.49 %-12.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 0.12 % = -0.57 %-28.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.06 % = -0.45 %-57.65 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 604 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.60 % = -0.06 %-0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.12 % = 0.01 %0.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.06 % = 0.03 %3.40 %
Sell Signals - 604 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.60 % = 0.03 %0.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.12 % = 0.07 %3.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.06 % = 0.06 %8.25 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 848 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.60 % = 0.15 %1.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.12 % = 0.07 %3.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.06 % = 0.03 %3.58 %
Sell Signals - 847 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.60 % = 0.07 %0.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.12 % = -0.01 %-0.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.06 % = -0.03 %-4.31 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 331 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.60 % = -0.01 %-0.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.12 % = -0.20 %-10.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.06 % = -0.23 %-28.84 %
Sell Signals - 332 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.60 % = 0.45 %3.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.12 % = 0.37 %18.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.06 % = 0.35 %44.52 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 205 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.60 % = 0.08 %0.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.12 % = -0.21 %-10.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.06 % = -0.24 %-29.98 %
Sell Signals - 206 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.60 % = 0.43 %3.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.12 % = 0.47 %23.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.06 % = 0.46 %57.98 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.13 % minus 0.60 % = -1.73 %-14.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.12 % = 0.54 %27.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.06 % = 0.12 %14.77 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.60 % = -0.18 %-1.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.12 % = 0.15 %7.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.06 % = 0.09 %11.31 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 214 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.60 % = -0.12 %-1.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.12 % = 0.13 %6.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.06 % = 0.10 %13.11 %
Sell Signals - 97 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.60 % = 0.22 %1.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.12 % = 0.00 %0.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.06 % = -0.08 %-10.72 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.15 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal for was -1.49 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.54 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.57 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.20 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.45 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for ACG Stock Prices