Moving Average Indicators for ACG

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

ACG: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ACG stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ACG.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of ACM Income Fund

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Thursday, March 18, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with Mylan Inc., ticker symbol MYL. Also, there are breaking events concerning MicroSoft (MSFT) and Dupont (DD)

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.93 % minus 0.61 % = -1.54 %	-13.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.40 % minus 0.12 % = -0.52 %	-26.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.06 % = -0.02 %	-2.27 %
Sell Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.61 % = -0.35 %	-2.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.12 % = 0.08 %	4.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.06 % = -0.06 %	-7.92 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 147 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.62 % minus 0.61 % = 0.01 %	0.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.12 % = 0.14 %	6.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.06 % = 0.17 %	21.03 %
Sell Signals - 148 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.72 % minus 0.61 % = 0.11 %	0.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.12 % = -0.03 %	-1.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.06 % = -0.01 %	-0.90 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.32 % minus 0.61 % = -1.94 %	-16.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.12 % = 0.12 %	6.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.06 % = 0.10 %	12.32 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.87 % minus 0.61 % = -1.48 %	-12.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.41 % minus 0.12 % = -0.53 %	-26.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.36 % minus 0.06 % = -0.42 %	-53.10 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 622 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.61 % = -0.08 %	-0.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.12 % = -0.03 %	-1.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.06 % = 0.00 %	-0.42 %
Sell Signals - 621 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.66 % minus 0.61 % = 0.05 %	0.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.12 % = 0.06 %	3.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.06 % = 0.05 %	6.67 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 877 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.61 % = 0.09 %	0.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.12 % = 0.04 %	2.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.06 % = 0.00 %	0.27 %
Sell Signals - 876 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.67 % minus 0.61 % = 0.06 %	0.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.12 % = 0.01 %	0.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.06 % = -0.01 %	-0.71 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 332 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.59 % minus 0.61 % = -0.02 %	-0.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.11 % minus 0.12 % = -0.23 %	-11.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.06 % = -0.25 %	-31.19 %
Sell Signals - 331 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.05 % minus 0.61 % = 0.44 %	3.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.12 % = 0.34 %	17.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.06 % = 0.34 %	42.67 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 214 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.71 % minus 0.61 % = 0.10 %	0.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.11 % minus 0.12 % = -0.23 %	-11.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.06 % = -0.25 %	-31.71 %
Sell Signals - 216 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.07 % minus 0.61 % = 0.46 %	3.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.12 % = 0.45 %	22.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.06 % = 0.46 %	58.41 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.27 % minus 0.61 % = -1.88 %	-15.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.12 % = 0.46 %	23.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.06 % = 0.10 %	12.77 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.61 % = -0.42 %	-3.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.12 % = -0.09 %	-4.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.06 % = -0.04 %	-5.63 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 0.61 % = -0.13 %	-1.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.12 % = 0.15 %	7.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.06 % = 0.12 %	15.42 %
Sell Signals - 107 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.73 % minus 0.61 % = 0.12 %	1.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.12 % = 0.03 %	1.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.06 % = -0.03 %	-3.98 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.10 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.48 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.46 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.53 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.17 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.42 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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