Moving Average Analysis of ACS

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From the Weekend Report 12/19/2008: ACS may have reached phase 4 of the oscillator cycle, which is to say that, while the price is still below the 200 day average, the gap has closed somewhat during the last week.

ACS: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Affiliated Computer Services, Inc.:

Different ways of averaging are tested on ACS stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ACS.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Affiliated Computer Services, Inc.
Companies In the News
Friday, January 02, 2009: We have news on Intel, ticker symbol INTC. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Praxair, Inc. and Allegheny Energy, Inc..

From the News Archive: (12/31/2008 ) Favorable events happened at Fluor Corporation (NEW) and National City Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Office Depot, Inc. and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.54 % minus 1.25 % = -1.80 %-15.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose -2.11 % minus 0.26 % = -2.37 %-120.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.35 % minus 0.13 % = -1.48 %-187.91 %
Sell Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 1.25 % = -1.34 %-11.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.82 % minus 0.26 % = 0.56 %28.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.13 % = 0.41 %52.47 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 105 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.72 % minus 1.25 % = 1.46 %12.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.26 % = 0.39 %19.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.13 % = 0.20 %25.34 %
Sell Signals - 105 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.92 % minus 1.25 % = 0.66 %5.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.26 % = 0.32 %16.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.13 % = 0.54 %68.34 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 1.25 % = -0.47 %-3.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.26 % = 0.57 %29.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.13 % = 0.26 %33.27 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 1.25 % = -1.11 %-9.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.26 % = -0.34 %-17.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.13 % = -0.29 %-37.38 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 319 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.21 % minus 1.25 % = -0.04 %-0.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.26 % = -0.01 %-0.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.13 % = -0.10 %-12.37 %
Sell Signals - 318 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 1.25 % = -0.17 %-1.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.26 % = -0.23 %-11.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.13 % = -0.15 %-18.67 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 430 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 1.25 % = -0.25 %-2.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.26 % = -0.06 %-3.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.13 % = -0.09 %-11.00 %
Sell Signals - 430 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 1.25 % = -0.15 %-1.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.26 % = 0.16 %8.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.13 % = 0.11 %14.11 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 190 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.73 % minus 1.25 % = 0.47 %3.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.26 % = 0.20 %9.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.13 % = 0.11 %14.43 %
Sell Signals - 191 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.79 % minus 1.25 % = 0.53 %4.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.26 % = 0.02 %1.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.13 % = 0.08 %9.78 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 137 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 1.25 % = -0.34 %-2.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.26 % = 0.10 %4.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.13 % = 0.00 %-0.61 %
Sell Signals - 138 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.25 % minus 1.25 % = -0.01 %-0.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.26 % = -0.03 %-1.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.13 % = -0.07 %-9.12 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.85 % minus 1.25 % = -2.11 %-17.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.90 % minus 0.26 % = -1.16 %-58.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.68 % minus 0.13 % = -0.80 %-102.12 %
Sell Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.65 % minus 1.25 % = 0.40 %3.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.82 % minus 0.26 % = 0.57 %28.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.13 % = 0.34 %43.40 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 115 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 1.25 % = -0.23 %-1.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.26 % = -0.36 %-18.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.13 % = -0.20 %-24.96 %
Sell Signals - 90 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.12 % minus 1.25 % = -0.14 %-1.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.26 % = 0.01 %0.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.13 % = -0.08 %-9.73 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.46 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.34 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.57 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.34 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.26 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.29 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Affiliated Computer Services, Inc. Moving Averages - ACS