Moving Average Analysis of ACS

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From the Weekend Report 1/29/2010: In relation to the 200 bar moving average, ACS appears to be in phase 2 of the long term oscillation cycle. While still 22.00 % above the line, the gap has closed some since the end of last week.

ACS: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Affiliated Computer Services, Inc.:

Different ways of averaging are tested on ACS stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ACS.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Affiliated Computer Services, Inc.
Companies In the News
Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on Nicor Inc., ticker symbol GAS. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning American International Group, Inc. and MicroSoft.

From the News Archive: (2/4/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Illinois Tool Works Inc., Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation, and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Kodak.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 1.35 % = -0.91 %-7.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.69 % minus 0.27 % = -1.96 %-99.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.14 % minus 0.13 % = -1.27 %-161.61 %
Sell Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 1.35 % = -1.31 %-11.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.27 % = 0.60 %30.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.13 % = 0.02 %2.70 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 113 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.78 % minus 1.35 % = 1.43 %12.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.27 % = 0.43 %21.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.13 % = 0.25 %31.63 %
Sell Signals - 113 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.04 % minus 1.35 % = 0.69 %5.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.27 % = 0.30 %15.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.13 % = 0.52 %66.43 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 1.35 % = -0.19 %-1.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.27 % = 0.49 %24.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.13 % = 0.13 %16.77 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 1.35 % = -0.74 %-6.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.27 % = -0.32 %-16.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.13 % = -0.29 %-36.80 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 350 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.33 % minus 1.35 % = -0.02 %-0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.27 % = 0.03 %1.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.13 % = -0.05 %-6.73 %
Sell Signals - 349 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 1.35 % = -0.11 %-0.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.27 % = -0.10 %-5.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.13 % = -0.01 %-1.05 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 469 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.15 % minus 1.35 % = -0.20 %-1.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.27 % = 0.01 %0.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.13 % = -0.03 %-3.53 %
Sell Signals - 469 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.23 % minus 1.35 % = -0.12 %-1.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.27 % = 0.19 %9.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.13 % = 0.10 %12.95 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 209 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.80 % minus 1.35 % = 0.45 %3.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.27 % = 0.09 %4.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.13 % = 0.03 %3.34 %
Sell Signals - 209 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.03 % minus 1.35 % = 0.68 %5.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.27 % = 0.10 %5.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.13 % = 0.16 %20.14 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 137 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 1.35 % = -0.24 %-2.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.27 % = 0.29 %14.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.13 % = 0.16 %20.70 %
Sell Signals - 137 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.14 % minus 1.35 % = -0.21 %-1.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.27 % = -0.07 %-3.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.13 % = -0.13 %-16.22 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 1.35 % = -1.65 %-14.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.75 % minus 0.27 % = -1.02 %-51.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.61 % minus 0.13 % = -0.74 %-94.40 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.43 % minus 1.35 % = 0.08 %0.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.27 % = 0.44 %22.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.13 % = 0.22 %28.54 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 123 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 1.35 % = -0.27 %-2.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.27 % = -0.33 %-16.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.13 % = -0.17 %-21.71 %
Sell Signals - 102 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.49 % minus 1.35 % = 0.14 %1.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.27 % = 0.05 %2.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.13 % = 0.02 %2.26 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.43 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.31 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.49 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.32 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.25 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.29 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for ACS Stock Prices