Moving Average Indicators for ADBE

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From the Weekend Report 7/23/2010: Phase four of the MACD sequence is at least mildly bullish because the stock may get a boost as it approaches the 200 session moving average. Currently the stock is -14.00 % below that line, but the distance narrowed over the week.

ADBE: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ADBE stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to ADBE stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

Companies In the News

Friday, July 30, 2010: We have news on Janus Capital Group Inc., ticker symbol JNS. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Akamai Technologies, Inc. and Cummins Inc..

From the News Archive: (7/28/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Quest Diagnostics Incorporated. Meanwhile, bad news came from W.W. Grainger, Inc., Dupont, and Abbott Laboratories.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 2.15 % = -2.02 %	-17.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.88 % minus 0.43 % = -1.30 %	-66.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.99 % minus 0.22 % = -1.20 %	-152.50 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	4.14 % minus 2.15 % = 1.99 %	16.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.43 % = 0.34 %	17.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.22 % = -0.02 %	-2.27 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 165 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.92 % minus 2.15 % = -0.23 %	-1.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.43 % = -0.41 %	-20.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.22 % = -0.18 %	-22.38 %
Sell Signals - 164 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.62 % minus 2.15 % = -0.53 %	-4.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.43 % = 0.15 %	7.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.22 % = -0.01 %	-1.79 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.01 % minus 2.15 % = -1.14 %	-9.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.00 % minus 0.43 % = 0.57 %	29.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 0.22 % = 0.64 %	81.05 %
Sell Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.34 % minus 2.15 % = -0.81 %	-6.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.43 % = -0.02 %	-1.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.22 % = -0.26 %	-32.52 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 550 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.96 % minus 2.15 % = -0.19 %	-1.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.43 % = 0.04 %	2.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.22 % = 0.03 %	3.23 %
Sell Signals - 549 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.87 % minus 2.15 % = -0.28 %	-2.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 0.43 % = 0.12 %	6.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.22 % = 0.20 %	25.29 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 751 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.11 % minus 2.15 % = -0.04 %	-0.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.43 % = -0.06 %	-3.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.22 % = -0.11 %	-13.38 %
Sell Signals - 751 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.19 % minus 2.15 % = 0.04 %	0.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.43 % = -0.08 %	-4.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.22 % = -0.04 %	-5.41 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 302 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.82 % minus 2.15 % = -0.33 %	-2.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 0.43 % = 0.12 %	5.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.22 % = 0.13 %	15.94 %
Sell Signals - 303 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.21 % minus 2.15 % = 0.06 %	0.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.43 % = -0.01 %	-0.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.22 % = 0.09 %	11.57 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.27 % minus 2.15 % = 0.12 %	0.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.15 % minus 0.43 % = 0.72 %	36.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.63 % minus 0.22 % = 0.41 %	52.62 %
Sell Signals - 189 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.22 % minus 2.15 % = 0.07 %	0.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.04 % minus 0.43 % = 0.61 %	31.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.68 % minus 0.22 % = 0.46 %	58.92 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.51 % minus 2.15 % = -2.66 %	-22.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.43 % = -0.15 %	-7.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 0.22 % = 0.39 %	49.60 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	4.76 % minus 2.15 % = 2.61 %	22.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.55 % minus 0.43 % = 1.12 %	57.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.22 % = 0.30 %	38.32 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 209 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.73 % minus 2.15 % = -0.43 %	-3.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.43 % = -0.13 %	-6.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.22 % = -0.11 %	-14.46 %
Sell Signals - 158 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.09 % minus 2.15 % = -1.06 %	-9.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.43 % = 0.13 %	6.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.69 % minus 0.22 % = 0.47 %	60.22 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.12 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.06 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.72 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.08 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.64 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.26 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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Moving Average Convergence for Adobe Systems Incorporated Stock Prices - ADBE