ADM Averages

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From the Weekend Report 12/19/2008: Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, ADM would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -10.00 % under the line.

ADM: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Archer-Daniels-Midland:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ADM stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ADM.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Archer-Daniels-Midland
Companies In the News
Friday, January 02, 2009: We have news on Intel, ticker symbol INTC. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Praxair, Inc. and Allegheny Energy, Inc..

From the News Archive: (12/31/2008 ) Favorable events happened at Fluor Corporation (NEW) and National City Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Office Depot, Inc. and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.83 % = 0.12 %1.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.17 % = -0.29 %-14.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.08 %-10.10 %
Sell Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.83 % = -0.35 %-2.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.17 % = -0.06 %-2.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.08 % = -0.01 %-1.12 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 178 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 0.83 % = 0.11 %0.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.17 % = 0.40 %20.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.08 % = 0.29 %36.24 %
Sell Signals - 178 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.83 % = -0.02 %-0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.17 % = -0.17 %-8.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.08 % = -0.14 %-17.70 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 51 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.83 % = -0.10 %-0.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.17 % = -0.14 %-7.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.08 % = 0.08 %10.40 %
Sell Signals - 50 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 0.83 % = 0.30 %2.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.17 % = 0.07 %3.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.08 % = 0.00 %0.15 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 624 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.83 % = -0.04 %-0.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.17 % = -0.12 %-5.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.07 %-9.52 %
Sell Signals - 623 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.83 % = 0.03 %0.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.17 % = -0.13 %-6.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.08 % = -0.13 %-16.73 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 906 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 0.83 % = 0.13 %1.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.17 % = -0.01 %-0.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %3.64 %
Sell Signals - 906 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.83 % = 0.03 %0.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.17 % = -0.05 %-2.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.08 % = -0.03 %-3.63 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 348 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.83 % = -0.23 %-1.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.17 % = -0.08 %-3.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.08 % = -0.12 %-14.99 %
Sell Signals - 347 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.83 % = 0.08 %0.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.17 % = 0.23 %11.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.08 % = 0.13 %16.75 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 249 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.83 % = -0.55 %-4.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.17 % = -0.38 %-19.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.25 % minus 0.08 % = -0.34 %-42.88 %
Sell Signals - 249 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.83 % = 0.07 %0.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.17 % = 0.19 %9.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.08 % = 0.25 %31.51 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.69 % minus 0.83 % = 0.87 %7.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.17 % = 0.08 %3.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.08 % = 0.15 %18.88 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.83 % = 0.02 %0.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.17 % = -0.29 %-14.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.08 % = 0.06 %8.03 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 225 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.57 % minus 0.83 % = 0.75 %6.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.17 % = 0.34 %17.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.08 % = 0.32 %40.14 %
Sell Signals - 189 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.83 % = -0.66 %-5.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.17 % = -0.45 %-23.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.08 % = -0.20 %-25.89 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.87 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.66 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.40 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.45 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.32 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.20 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..



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Moving Average Analysis of - ADM