ADM Averages

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From the Weekend Report 2/5/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

ADM: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ADM stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ADM.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Archer-Daniels-Midland
Companies In the News
Thursday, February 04, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation and Eastman Kodak.

From the News Archive: (2/3/2010 ) Favorable events happened at C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., PNC Financial Services, and Briggs and Stratton. Meanwhile, bad news came from Northrop Grumman Corporation.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 0.85 % = 0.39 %3.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.17 % = -0.12 %-6.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.09 % = 0.07 %9.07 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.85 % = -0.40 %-3.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.17 % = -0.16 %-8.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.09 % = 0.00 %0.47 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 187 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.85 % = 0.10 %0.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.17 % = 0.25 %12.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.09 % = 0.15 %18.68 %
Sell Signals - 186 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.85 % = -0.04 %-0.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.17 % = -0.26 %-13.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.09 % = -0.20 %-25.12 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 56 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.85 % = 0.18 %1.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.17 % = -0.03 %-1.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.09 % = 0.18 %22.25 %
Sell Signals - 56 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.85 % = 0.09 %0.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.17 % = -0.13 %-6.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.09 % = -0.18 %-22.66 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 660 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.85 % = -0.11 %-0.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.17 % = -0.11 %-5.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.06 %-8.23 %
Sell Signals - 659 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.85 % = -0.05 %-0.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.17 % = -0.12 %-5.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.10 %-13.15 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 945 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 0.85 % = 0.11 %0.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.17 % = -0.02 %-0.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.03 %4.11 %
Sell Signals - 945 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.85 % = 0.00 %0.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.17 % = -0.06 %-3.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %-4.24 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 370 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.85 % = -0.15 %-1.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.17 % = -0.07 %-3.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.15 %-18.87 %
Sell Signals - 371 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.85 % = 0.23 %1.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.17 % = 0.26 %13.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.09 % = 0.15 %18.56 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 271 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.85 % = -0.43 %-3.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.19 % minus 0.17 % = -0.36 %-18.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.09 % = -0.35 %-44.44 %
Sell Signals - 272 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.85 % = 0.31 %2.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.17 % = 0.29 %14.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.09 % = 0.29 %37.36 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.08 % minus 0.85 % = 1.22 %10.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.17 % = 0.16 %8.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.09 % = 0.30 %38.20 %
Sell Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.85 % = -0.12 %-1.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.17 % = -0.38 %-19.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.05 %-6.70 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 232 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.67 % minus 0.85 % = 0.82 %6.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.17 % = 0.42 %21.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.09 % = 0.37 %47.14 %
Sell Signals - 190 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.85 % = -0.55 %-4.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.17 % = -0.49 %-24.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.09 % = -0.22 %-28.11 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.22 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.55 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.42 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.49 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.37 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.22 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..



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Moving Average Indicators for Archer-Daniels-Midland