Moving Average Analysis of ADP

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: After increasing the spread over the week, ADP is now 10.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ADP stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to ADP stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




ADP: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.35 % minus 0.92 % = 2.43 %20.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.19 % = 0.87 %43.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.09 % = 0.36 %45.67 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.92 % = -0.96 %-8.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.28 % minus 0.19 % = -0.46 %-23.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.25 % minus 0.09 % = -0.35 %-44.30 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 0.92 % = 0.21 %1.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.19 % = 0.10 %5.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.03 %3.75 %
Sell Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.92 % = -0.28 %-2.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.19 % = -0.06 %-3.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %6.42 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 48 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.60 % minus 0.92 % = 0.68 %5.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.19 % = -0.49 %-25.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.09 % = -0.40 %-50.49 %
Sell Signals - 48 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.92 % = -0.09 %-0.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.19 % = -0.17 %-8.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.09 %-11.21 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 660 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.92 % = -0.06 %-0.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.19 % = 0.01 %0.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.05 %-5.75 %
Sell Signals - 661 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.92 % = -0.01 %-0.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.19 % = 0.12 %6.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.10 %13.17 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 883 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.92 % = 0.03 %0.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %1.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.04 %5.41 %
Sell Signals - 882 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.92 % = -0.13 %-1.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.19 % = -0.15 %-7.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.12 %-15.57 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 392 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.92 % = -0.01 %-0.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.19 % = 0.12 %6.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.09 % = 0.18 %22.52 %
Sell Signals - 393 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.92 % = 0.24 %2.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.19 % = 0.08 %4.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %6.28 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 275 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 0.92 % = 0.15 %1.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.19 % = 0.08 %4.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %11.70 %
Sell Signals - 275 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.31 % minus 0.92 % = 0.39 %3.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.19 % = 0.05 %2.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-0.81 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.98 % minus 0.92 % = 2.06 %17.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.19 % = 0.51 %26.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.09 % = 0.46 %58.86 %
Sell Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.92 % = -0.21 %-1.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.19 % = -0.01 %-0.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.07 %-9.30 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 255 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.92 % = -0.09 %-0.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.19 % = 0.10 %5.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.05 %-6.92 %
Sell Signals - 203 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 0.92 % = 0.14 %1.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.19 % = -0.14 %-6.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.09 % = -0.23 %-29.84 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.43 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.96 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.87 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.46 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.46 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.35 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Automatic Data Processing Moving Averages - ADP