Moving Average Analysis of AIG

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From the Weekend Report 3/5/2010: Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, AIG would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -8.00 % under the line.

AIG: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to AIG stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for AIG.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

Companies In the News

Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at LoJack Corp and Martha Stewart. Meanwhile, bad news came from Patterson Companies, Inc. and LSI Corporation.

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.86 % minus 0.82 % = -1.68 %	-14.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.16 % = 0.07 %	3.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.07 % = -0.17 %	-21.60 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.86 % minus 0.82 % = -1.68 %	-14.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.56 % minus 0.16 % = -0.72 %	-36.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.70 % minus 0.07 % = -0.77 %	-97.92 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 187 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.82 % = -0.64 %	-5.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.16 % = -0.08 %	-4.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.07 % = -0.05 %	-6.00 %
Sell Signals - 186 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.69 % minus 0.82 % = -0.13 %	-1.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.16 % = -0.01 %	-0.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.07 % = 0.10 %	13.32 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.82 % = -0.64 %	-5.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 0.16 % = 0.45 %	22.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.07 % = 0.39 %	50.05 %
Sell Signals - 44 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.82 % = -0.65 %	-5.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.16 % = 0.10 %	5.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.07 % = -0.14 %	-18.30 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 585 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.82 % = -0.77 %	-6.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.16 % = -0.06 %	-3.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.07 % = -0.01 %	-1.18 %
Sell Signals - 585 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.82 % = -0.51 %	-4.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.16 % = -0.06 %	-3.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.07 % = -0.09 %	-12.05 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 774 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.97 % minus 0.82 % = 0.15 %	1.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.16 % = -0.10 %	-5.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.07 % = -0.12 %	-14.64 %
Sell Signals - 774 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.82 % = -0.25 %	-2.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.16 % = -0.35 %	-17.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.07 % = -0.17 %	-21.48 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 332 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.82 % = -0.31 %	-2.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 0.16 % = 0.33 %	16.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.07 % = 0.36 %	45.15 %
Sell Signals - 333 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.82 % = -0.70 %	-5.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.16 % = -0.11 %	-5.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.07 % = -0.09 %	-11.57 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 218 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.76 % minus 0.82 % = -0.05 %	-0.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.16 % = 0.24 %	12.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.07 % = 0.35 %	44.21 %
Sell Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.82 % = -0.48 %	-4.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.16 % = 0.03 %	1.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.07 % = -0.04 %	-4.61 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-2.59 % minus 0.82 % = -3.41 %	-28.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.14 % minus 0.16 % = -1.30 %	-65.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.43 % minus 0.07 % = -0.50 %	-63.47 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.11 % minus 0.82 % = -0.93 %	-7.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.66 % minus 0.16 % = 0.50 %	25.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.07 % = -0.20 %	-24.81 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 214 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.26 % minus 0.82 % = 1.44 %	12.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.71 % minus 0.16 % = 0.55 %	28.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.07 % = 0.30 %	38.14 %
Sell Signals - 178 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.82 % = -0.34 %	-2.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.75 % minus 0.16 % = 0.59 %	30.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.07 % = 0.51 %	64.37 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.44 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -1.68 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.55 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.77 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.39 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.77 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

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Moving Average Indicators for American International Group, Inc.