Moving Average Analysis of ALA

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From the Weekend Report 4/7/2006: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

ALA: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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Different ways of averaging are tested on ALA stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ALA.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




ALA: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Monday, November 15, 2010: We have news on PG&E Corporation, ticker symbol PCG. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Cree, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories.

From the News Archive: (11/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at PetSmart, Inc. Meanwhile, bad news came from Intel, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and JP Morgan Chase.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.53 % minus 0.74 % = 2.79 %23.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.78 % minus 0.13 % = 1.65 %83.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.54 % minus 0.06 % = 1.48 %187.39 %
Sell Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.08 % minus 0.74 % = -1.82 %-15.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.25 % minus 0.13 % = -0.38 %-19.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.85 % minus 0.06 % = -0.92 %-116.37 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 94 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.74 % = -0.54 %-4.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.37 % minus 0.13 % = -0.50 %-25.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.06 % = -0.21 %-26.10 %
Sell Signals - 93 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.74 % = -0.39 %-3.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.13 % = 0.33 %16.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.06 % = 0.04 %4.60 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.77 % minus 0.74 % = -1.52 %-12.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.42 % minus 0.13 % = -0.55 %-27.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.72 % minus 0.06 % = -0.79 %-99.79 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.47 % minus 0.74 % = -3.21 %-27.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.18 % minus 0.13 % = -1.31 %-66.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.06 % = -0.18 %-23.45 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 300 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.74 % = 0.02 %0.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.13 % = -0.05 %-2.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.06 % = -0.01 %-0.85 %
Sell Signals - 301 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.74 % = 0.15 %1.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.13 % = -0.07 %-3.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.06 % = -0.09 %-11.87 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 400 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.33 % minus 0.74 % = 0.58 %4.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.13 % = 0.27 %13.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.06 % = 0.14 %17.46 %
Sell Signals - 400 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.74 % = 0.20 %1.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.13 % = 0.00 %0.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.06 % = -0.21 %-27.18 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 172 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.48 % minus 0.74 % = 0.73 %6.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.13 % = 0.46 %23.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.06 % = 0.24 %30.61 %
Sell Signals - 172 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.74 % = 0.15 %1.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.13 % = -0.19 %-9.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.06 % = -0.32 %-40.60 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 110 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.57 % minus 0.74 % = 2.83 %23.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.13 % = 0.90 %45.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.06 % = 0.52 %65.88 %
Sell Signals - 110 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.88 % minus 0.74 % = 2.13 %18.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.13 % = 0.27 %13.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.06 % = 0.03 %3.67 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.74 % = -0.83 %-7.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose -3.02 % minus 0.13 % = -3.15 %-159.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose -3.66 % minus 0.06 % = -3.73 %-473.11 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.21 % minus 0.74 % = -1.95 %-16.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.13 % = -0.29 %-14.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.06 % = 0.32 %41.27 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 110 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 0.74 % = 0.38 %3.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.13 % = 0.31 %15.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.06 % = 0.24 %30.00 %
Sell Signals - 98 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.74 % = -0.34 %-2.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.13 % = 0.46 %23.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.06 % = 0.60 %75.83 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.83 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -3.21 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.65 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.31 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.48 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.92 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis of - ALA