Moving Average Analysis of AMAT

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From the Weekend Report 7/23/2010: Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, AMAT would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -3.00 % under the line.

AMAT: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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Different ways of averaging are tested on AMAT stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to AMAT stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




AMAT: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, July 30, 2010: We have news on National Semiconductor Corporation, ticker symbol NSM. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Tenet Healthcare Corporation and Janus Capital Group Inc..

From the News Archive: (7/30/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Akamai Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Chemical Company, Motorola, and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 1.79 % = -0.74 %-6.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.30 % minus 0.36 % = 0.93 %47.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.19 % = 0.85 %108.53 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.92 % minus 1.79 % = 1.13 %9.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.36 % = -0.10 %-5.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.19 % = -0.03 %-4.40 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 206 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.51 % minus 1.79 % = 0.72 %6.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.36 % = 0.52 %26.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.19 % = 0.15 %18.65 %
Sell Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.15 % minus 1.79 % = -0.64 %-5.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.36 % = -0.42 %-21.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %3.49 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 51 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 1.79 % = -2.24 %-18.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.36 % = -0.31 %-15.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.19 % = -0.55 %-69.48 %
Sell Signals - 50 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 1.79 % = -1.92 %-16.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.09 % minus 0.36 % = -1.45 %-73.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.55 % minus 0.19 % = -0.74 %-93.57 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 628 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.91 % minus 1.79 % = 0.13 %1.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.36 % = -0.17 %-8.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.19 % = -0.28 %-34.96 %
Sell Signals - 629 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.21 % minus 1.79 % = 0.42 %3.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.36 % = 0.09 %4.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.19 % = 0.16 %20.69 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 859 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.54 % minus 1.79 % = -0.25 %-2.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.36 % = -0.02 %-0.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.19 % = 0.09 %11.13 %
Sell Signals - 858 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.29 % minus 1.79 % = -0.50 %-4.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.36 % = -0.27 %-13.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.19 % = -0.28 %-35.27 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 379 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.18 % minus 1.79 % = -0.61 %-5.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.36 % = -0.27 %-13.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.19 % = -0.14 %-17.80 %
Sell Signals - 377 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.65 % minus 1.79 % = -0.14 %-1.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.36 % = -0.12 %-6.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.19 % = -0.09 %-10.86 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 241 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 1.79 % = -1.49 %-12.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.36 % = -0.35 %-17.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.19 % = -0.30 %-38.16 %
Sell Signals - 242 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 1.79 % = -1.10 %-9.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.36 % = -0.28 %-14.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.19 % = -0.26 %-32.80 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.76 % minus 1.79 % = -0.03 %-0.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.75 % minus 0.36 % = 1.39 %70.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 0.19 % = 0.88 %111.30 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.70 % minus 1.79 % = -3.48 %-29.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.67 % minus 0.36 % = -2.04 %-103.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.40 % minus 0.19 % = -1.59 %-201.62 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 238 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.04 % minus 1.79 % = 1.25 %10.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.36 % = 0.54 %27.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.19 % = 0.15 %18.57 %
Sell Signals - 195 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.27 % minus 1.79 % = -0.52 %-4.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.36 % = -0.45 %-22.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.19 % = -0.25 %-31.32 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.25 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -3.48 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.39 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -2.04 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.88 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -1.59 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Applied Materials Moving Averages - AMAT