Moving Average Indicators for AMR

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From the Weekend Report 11/12/2010: In relation to the 200 bar moving average, AMR appears to be in phase 2 of the long term oscillation cycle. While still 12.00 % above the line, the gap has closed some since the end of last week.

AMR: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for American Airlines:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to AMR stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to AMR stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of American Airlines
Companies In the News
Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 1.30 % = -1.33 %-11.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.71 % minus 0.25 % = 1.46 %74.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.49 % minus 0.12 % = 1.37 %174.44 %
Sell Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.61 % minus 1.30 % = -2.91 %-24.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.47 % minus 0.25 % = -0.72 %-36.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.12 % = 0.13 %16.74 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 226 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 1.30 % = -0.89 %-7.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.25 % = -0.23 %-11.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.12 % = -0.15 %-18.93 %
Sell Signals - 226 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 1.30 % = -0.54 %-4.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.25 % = -0.36 %-18.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.12 % = 0.03 %3.46 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 59 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.12 % minus 1.30 % = 1.82 %15.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.25 % = 0.79 %40.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.12 % = 0.32 %41.21 %
Sell Signals - 58 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.27 % minus 1.30 % = -0.02 %-0.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.25 % = -0.14 %-7.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.12 % = -0.23 %-29.54 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 661 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 1.30 % = 0.09 %0.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.25 % = -0.10 %-4.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.12 % = -0.13 %-16.76 %
Sell Signals - 662 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.35 % minus 1.30 % = 0.05 %0.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.25 % = -0.10 %-4.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.12 % = -0.02 %-2.08 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 972 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.19 % minus 1.30 % = -0.11 %-0.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.25 % = -0.01 %-0.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.12 % = 0.09 %10.90 %
Sell Signals - 971 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.22 % minus 1.30 % = -0.07 %-0.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.25 % = -0.10 %-5.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.12 % = -0.04 %-5.33 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 425 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.66 % minus 1.30 % = 0.36 %3.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.25 % = 0.29 %14.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.12 % = 0.35 %44.94 %
Sell Signals - 425 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 1.30 % = -0.24 %-2.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.25 % = -0.31 %-15.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.12 % = -0.26 %-33.12 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 250 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.18 % minus 1.30 % = 0.88 %7.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.25 % = 0.39 %20.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.12 % = 0.53 %67.25 %
Sell Signals - 251 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 1.30 % = -0.39 %-3.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.48 % minus 0.25 % = -0.73 %-37.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.37 % minus 0.12 % = -0.49 %-62.34 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 49 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.03 % minus 1.30 % = 1.73 %14.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.17 % minus 0.25 % = 0.93 %47.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.12 % = 0.35 %43.82 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.97 % minus 1.30 % = -2.26 %-19.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.25 % = -0.08 %-4.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.12 % = -0.46 %-59.00 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 242 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 1.30 % = -0.28 %-2.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.25 % = 0.20 %9.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.12 % = 0.12 %15.40 %
Sell Signals - 233 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.12 % minus 1.30 % = -0.17 %-1.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.25 % = 0.04 %1.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.12 % = 0.00 %-0.19 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.82 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.91 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.46 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.73 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.37 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.49 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..



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Moving Average Analysis of - AMR