Moving Average Analysis of AMZN

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From the Weekend Report 3/5/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with AMZN 24.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Amazon
General Market Conditions
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Different ways of averaging are tested on AMZN stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for AMZN.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Amazon
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Convergys Corporation and Coach, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fluor Corporation (NEW), Automatic Data Processing, and Home Depot.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 8 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.97 % minus 3.69 % = -6.67 %-56.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.66 % minus 0.74 % = 0.92 %46.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.37 % = -0.77 %-98.19 %
Sell Signals - 8 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -4.10 % minus 3.69 % = -7.79 %-65.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.53 % minus 0.74 % = -2.27 %-115.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.15 % minus 0.37 % = -1.52 %-193.33 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 84 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.82 % minus 3.69 % = 0.13 %1.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.42 % minus 0.74 % = 0.68 %34.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.37 % = 0.06 %7.64 %
Sell Signals - 84 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.04 % minus 3.69 % = 0.35 %2.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.74 % = 0.42 %21.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.37 % = 0.39 %49.69 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -4.12 % minus 3.69 % = -7.81 %-66.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.69 % minus 0.74 % = -2.44 %-123.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose -2.15 % minus 0.37 % = -2.52 %-319.96 %
Sell Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -5.24 % minus 3.69 % = -8.93 %-75.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose -4.12 % minus 0.74 % = -4.87 %-247.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose -2.00 % minus 0.37 % = -2.37 %-301.23 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 265 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.48 % minus 3.69 % = 0.79 %6.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.74 % = -0.18 %-8.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.37 % = -0.22 %-27.90 %
Sell Signals - 265 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.16 % minus 3.69 % = 0.47 %4.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.74 % = -0.09 %-4.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.37 % = 0.11 %14.24 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 383 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.09 % minus 3.69 % = 0.40 %3.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.74 % = 0.07 %3.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.37 % = 0.08 %10.49 %
Sell Signals - 383 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.12 % minus 3.69 % = 0.43 %3.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.74 % = 0.05 %2.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.37 % = 0.07 %8.76 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 139 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.32 % minus 3.69 % = -0.37 %-3.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 0.74 % = 0.49 %25.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.37 % = 0.26 %32.62 %
Sell Signals - 139 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.57 % minus 3.69 % = -1.12 %-9.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.74 % = -0.38 %-19.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.37 % = -0.02 %-2.65 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 113 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.23 % minus 3.69 % = -1.46 %-12.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.74 % = -0.67 %-34.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.52 % minus 0.37 % = -0.89 %-112.69 %
Sell Signals - 114 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.18 % minus 3.69 % = -0.51 %-4.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.74 % = -0.12 %-6.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.37 % = 0.22 %28.32 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.85 % minus 3.69 % = -6.54 %-55.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 0.74 % = 0.39 %19.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.30 % minus 0.37 % = 0.93 %117.86 %
Sell Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.97 % minus 3.69 % = -6.66 %-56.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.21 % minus 0.74 % = -1.95 %-99.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.50 % minus 0.37 % = -0.88 %-111.25 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 112 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.37 % minus 3.69 % = -0.32 %-2.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.74 % = 0.17 %8.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.37 % = -0.26 %-33.20 %
Sell Signals - 83 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.24 % minus 3.69 % = 0.55 %4.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.48 % minus 0.74 % = 0.74 %37.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.37 % = 0.35 %44.10 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.79 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -8.93 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.92 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -4.87 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.93 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -2.37 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for AMZN Stock Prices