Moving Average Analysis of APC

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From the Weekend Report 11/12/2010: APC is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 11.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on APC stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for APC.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

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MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.22 % minus 1.08 % = -1.31 %	-11.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.22 % = 0.06 %	2.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.11 % = -0.31 %	-38.81 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 1.08 % = -0.95 %	-8.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.22 % = -0.37 %	-19.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.16 % minus 0.11 % = -0.28 %	-35.08 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 179 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.99 % minus 1.08 % = -0.09 %	-0.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.22 % = 0.18 %	8.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.11 % = 0.06 %	8.02 %
Sell Signals - 179 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 1.08 % = -0.56 %	-4.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.22 % = -0.17 %	-8.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.11 % = -0.10 %	-12.60 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.49 % minus 1.08 % = 0.41 %	3.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.22 % = 0.30 %	15.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.11 % = 0.18 %	23.44 %
Sell Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.72 % minus 1.08 % = 0.64 %	5.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.87 % minus 0.22 % = 0.65 %	33.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.11 % = 0.45 %	57.09 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 561 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.07 % minus 1.08 % = -0.01 %	-0.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.22 % = 0.01 %	0.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.11 % = -0.01 %	-1.52 %
Sell Signals - 561 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.10 % minus 1.08 % = 0.02 %	0.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.22 % = 0.05 %	2.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.11 % = -0.08 %	-10.51 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 759 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 1.08 % = 0.17 %	1.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.22 % = -0.10 %	-5.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.11 % = -0.15 %	-19.25 %
Sell Signals - 759 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.29 % minus 1.08 % = 0.21 %	1.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.22 % = -0.05 %	-2.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.11 % = 0.03 %	3.64 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 344 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 1.08 % = 0.06 %	0.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.22 % = 0.02 %	0.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.11 % = 0.06 %	7.21 %
Sell Signals - 344 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 1.08 % = 0.06 %	0.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.22 % = -0.12 %	-6.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.11 % = -0.20 %	-25.59 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 244 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.51 % minus 1.08 % = 0.43 %	3.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.22 % = 0.20 %	10.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.11 % = 0.24 %	30.38 %
Sell Signals - 244 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.53 % minus 1.08 % = 0.45 %	3.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.22 % = 0.04 %	2.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.11 % = -0.08 %	-10.57 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 1.08 % = -0.76 %	-6.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.22 % = 0.35 %	17.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.45 % minus 0.11 % = 0.34 %	42.92 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.44 % minus 1.08 % = 0.36 %	3.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.22 % = 0.17 %	8.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.11 % = -0.26 %	-33.63 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 206 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.01 % minus 1.08 % = -0.07 %	-0.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.22 % = 0.05 %	2.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.11 % = 0.05 %	6.74 %
Sell Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.51 % minus 1.08 % = 0.43 %	3.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.22 % = 0.02 %	1.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.11 % = 0.22 %	28.10 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.43 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -0.95 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.35 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.37 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.34 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.28 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

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