APC Averages

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

APC: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Anadarko Petroleum Corporation:

Different ways of averaging are tested on APC stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to APC stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




APC: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Fluor Corporation (NEW) and Amgen, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Walgreen Company, Zimmer Holdings, Inc., and GameStop Corp.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Southwestern Energy Company.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 1.10 % = -0.32 %-2.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.23 % = 0.32 %16.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.12 % = -0.12 %-14.74 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 1.10 % = -0.98 %-8.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.23 % = -0.38 %-19.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.12 % = -0.28 %-36.17 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 175 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 1.10 % = -0.07 %-0.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.23 % = 0.21 %10.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.12 % = 0.07 %9.52 %
Sell Signals - 175 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 1.10 % = -0.69 %-5.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.23 % = -0.23 %-11.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.12 % = -0.19 %-23.94 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.93 % minus 1.10 % = 0.82 %6.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.23 % = 0.38 %19.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.12 % = 0.28 %34.99 %
Sell Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.72 % minus 1.10 % = 0.61 %5.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.23 % = 0.65 %32.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.12 % = 0.45 %56.71 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 546 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.12 % minus 1.10 % = 0.01 %0.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.23 % = 0.03 %1.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.12 % = 0.02 %3.00 %
Sell Signals - 546 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 1.10 % = -0.02 %-0.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.23 % = 0.01 %0.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.12 % = -0.11 %-14.60 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 740 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.29 % minus 1.10 % = 0.18 %1.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.23 % = -0.06 %-3.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.12 % = -0.10 %-13.15 %
Sell Signals - 740 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.30 % minus 1.10 % = 0.19 %1.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.23 % = -0.07 %-3.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.12 % = 0.03 %3.56 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 335 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 1.10 % = -0.12 %-1.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.23 % = -0.05 %-2.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.12 % = 0.04 %4.55 %
Sell Signals - 335 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.07 % minus 1.10 % = -0.04 %-0.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.23 % = -0.13 %-6.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.12 % = -0.22 %-27.61 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 242 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.27 % minus 1.10 % = 0.17 %1.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.23 % = 0.15 %7.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.12 % = 0.20 %25.41 %
Sell Signals - 242 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.38 % minus 1.10 % = 0.27 %2.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.23 % = 0.04 %1.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.12 % = -0.06 %-8.12 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 1.10 % = -0.27 %-2.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.23 % = 0.39 %19.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.12 % = 0.37 %46.57 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.43 % minus 1.10 % = 0.33 %2.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.23 % = 0.15 %7.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.12 % = -0.28 %-35.71 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 199 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 1.10 % = 0.01 %0.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.23 % = 0.07 %3.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.12 % = 0.03 %4.01 %
Sell Signals - 180 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.32 % minus 1.10 % = 0.22 %1.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.23 % = -0.01 %-0.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.12 % = 0.18 %23.01 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.82 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.98 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.39 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.38 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.37 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.28 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for Anadarko Petroleum Corporation Stock Prices - APC