Moving Average Analysis of APD

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From the Weekend Report 11/12/2010: APD is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 13.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on APD stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to APD stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

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	In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.12 % minus 0.97 % = 1.14 %	9.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.04 % minus 0.20 % = 0.84 %	42.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 0.10 % = 0.45 %	57.53 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.97 % = -0.80 %	-6.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.20 % = -0.21 %	-10.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.10 % = -0.01 %	-1.72 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 206 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 0.97 % = 0.20 %	1.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.20 % = 0.05 %	2.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.10 % = -0.07 %	-9.08 %
Sell Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.81 % minus 0.97 % = -0.16 %	-1.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.20 % = 0.06 %	3.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.10 % = 0.14 %	18.14 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 50 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.67 % minus 0.97 % = 1.70 %	14.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.82 % minus 0.20 % = 0.63 %	31.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.82 % minus 0.10 % = 0.72 %	91.12 %
Sell Signals - 50 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.63 % minus 0.97 % = 0.65 %	5.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.20 % = 0.18 %	9.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.10 % = 0.30 %	38.73 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 654 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.91 % minus 0.97 % = -0.06 %	-0.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.20 % = -0.05 %	-2.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.10 % = -0.08 %	-9.92 %
Sell Signals - 654 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.92 % minus 0.97 % = -0.06 %	-0.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.20 % = -0.07 %	-3.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.05 %	-6.66 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 881 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.97 % = -0.21 %	-1.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.20 % = -0.09 %	-4.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.04 %	-5.52 %
Sell Signals - 880 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.97 % = -0.15 %	-1.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.20 % = -0.06 %	-2.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.04 %	-5.66 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 391 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.91 % minus 0.97 % = -0.06 %	-0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.20 % = 0.13 %	6.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.10 % = 0.18 %	22.57 %
Sell Signals - 390 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.94 % minus 0.97 % = -0.03 %	-0.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.20 % = -0.06 %	-2.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.05 %	-6.11 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 258 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.90 % minus 0.97 % = -0.08 %	-0.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.20 % = 0.17 %	8.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.10 % = 0.09 %	11.72 %
Sell Signals - 258 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.75 % minus 0.97 % = -0.23 %	-1.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.20 % = -0.02 %	-1.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %	-4.30 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.27 % minus 0.97 % = 0.29 %	2.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.20 % = -0.26 %	-13.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.10 % = 0.00 %	-0.53 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.73 % minus 0.97 % = -0.25 %	-2.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.20 % = 0.31 %	15.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.10 % = 0.18 %	23.21 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 254 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.24 % minus 0.97 % = 0.26 %	2.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.20 % = 0.19 %	9.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.10 % = 0.20 %	26.02 %
Sell Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.11 % minus 0.97 % = 0.13 %	1.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.20 % = 0.06 %	3.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.10 % = 0.07 %	9.06 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.70 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.80 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.84 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.21 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.72 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.05 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence.

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