Moving Average Analysis of ASH

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Ashland Inc.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on ASH stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ASH.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Ashland Inc.

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Thursday, March 18, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Also, there are breaking events concerning AOL Time Warner (TWX) and Mylan Inc. (MYL)

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.20 % minus 0.86 % = 0.34 %	2.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.14 % = -0.10 %	-5.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.07 % = 0.23 %	29.79 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.91 % minus 0.86 % = -1.77 %	-14.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.31 % minus 0.14 % = -1.45 %	-73.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.74 % minus 0.07 % = -0.81 %	-102.40 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 176 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.86 % = -0.35 %	-3.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.14 % = -0.07 %	-3.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.09 %	-12.00 %
Sell Signals - 176 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.10 % minus 0.86 % = 0.24 %	2.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.14 % = -0.12 %	-6.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.07 % = -0.12 %	-14.77 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 51 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 0.86 % = 0.39 %	3.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.14 % = 0.24 %	11.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.07 % = 0.23 %	29.58 %
Sell Signals - 51 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 0.86 % = 0.28 %	2.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 0.14 % = 0.71 %	36.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 0.07 % = 0.48 %	61.36 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 618 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.65 % minus 0.86 % = -0.21 %	-1.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.14 % = 0.03 %	1.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.07 % = 0.01 %	1.90 %
Sell Signals - 618 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.60 % minus 0.86 % = -0.26 %	-2.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.14 % = -0.11 %	-5.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.07 % = -0.15 %	-18.89 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 843 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.86 % = -0.28 %	-2.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.14 % = -0.02 %	-0.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.07 % = 0.02 %	3.16 %
Sell Signals - 842 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 0.86 % = -0.38 %	-3.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.14 % = -0.09 %	-4.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.07 % = -0.02 %	-2.49 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 326 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.86 % minus 0.86 % = 0.00 %	-0.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.14 % = 0.06 %	3.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.07 % = -0.01 %	-0.78 %
Sell Signals - 326 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.86 % = -0.45 %	-3.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.14 % = 0.02 %	1.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.07 % = -0.01 %	-1.63 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 229 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.33 % minus 0.86 % = 0.47 %	4.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.14 % = -0.01 %	-0.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.04 %	-4.48 %
Sell Signals - 229 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 0.86 % = -0.01 %	-0.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.14 % = -0.07 %	-3.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.07 % = -0.11 %	-14.45 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.86 % = -0.34 %	-2.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.14 % = 0.19 %	9.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.07 % = 0.22 %	27.48 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.86 % = -0.81 %	-6.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.14 % = 0.33 %	16.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.07 % = 0.05 %	6.83 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 223 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.86 % = -0.30 %	-2.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.14 % = 0.02 %	1.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.07 % = 0.03 %	4.28 %
Sell Signals - 201 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.65 % minus 0.86 % = -0.21 %	-1.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.14 % = -0.01 %	-0.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.07 % = 0.01 %	0.76 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.47 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.77 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.24 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.45 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.23 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.81 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

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