Moving Average Analysis of ATML

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From the Weekend Report 12/19/2008: Phase three, the next to the last of the 200 session moving average phases, is now in effect as the price is diverging in a downward direction from the average line.

ATML: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ATML stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ATML.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

Moving Average Convergence of ATMEL Corp

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	Friday, January 02, 2009: We have news on Verizon, ticker symbol VZ. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning C.R. Bard, Inc. and Raytheon Company. From the News Archive: (1/2/2009 ) Bad news came from Wisconsin Energy Corporation, Intel, AT and T, and Williams Companies, Inc..

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.06 % minus 1.85 % = -0.78 %	-6.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.01 % minus 0.39 % = -1.41 %	-71.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.69 % minus 0.20 % = -0.89 %	-113.39 %
Sell Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.87 % minus 1.85 % = -3.72 %	-31.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.13 % minus 0.39 % = 0.74 %	37.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.62 % minus 0.20 % = 0.42 %	53.30 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 118 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.77 % minus 1.85 % = -0.08 %	-0.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.91 % minus 0.39 % = 0.51 %	25.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.20 % = 0.31 %	39.15 %
Sell Signals - 118 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.21 % minus 1.85 % = 0.37 %	3.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.97 % minus 0.39 % = 0.57 %	29.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.97 % minus 0.20 % = 0.77 %	97.93 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.22 % minus 1.85 % = -3.06 %	-25.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.22 % minus 0.39 % = -0.62 %	-31.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.01 % minus 0.20 % = -0.21 %	-27.06 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.97 % minus 1.85 % = -3.82 %	-32.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.39 % = -0.38 %	-19.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.20 % = 0.14 %	17.89 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 398 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.66 % minus 1.85 % = -0.19 %	-1.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.39 % = -0.16 %	-8.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.20 % = -0.02 %	-2.05 %
Sell Signals - 397 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.17 % minus 1.85 % = 0.32 %	2.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 0.39 % = 0.09 %	4.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.20 % = 0.12 %	15.12 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 549 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.10 % minus 1.85 % = 0.26 %	2.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.39 % = 0.19 %	9.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.20 % = 0.09 %	11.65 %
Sell Signals - 548 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.78 % minus 1.85 % = -0.07 %	-0.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.39 % = -0.10 %	-5.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.20 % = -0.03 %	-4.13 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 218 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.69 % minus 1.85 % = -1.16 %	-9.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.39 % = -0.20 %	-10.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.20 % = -0.11 %	-14.31 %
Sell Signals - 218 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.67 % minus 1.85 % = -1.18 %	-9.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.01 % minus 0.39 % = -0.41 %	-20.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.20 % = -0.24 %	-30.47 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 145 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.63 % minus 1.85 % = -0.22 %	-1.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.39 % = 0.01 %	0.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.20 % = 0.10 %	12.30 %
Sell Signals - 145 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.65 % minus 1.85 % = -0.20 %	-1.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.81 % minus 0.39 % = 0.41 %	20.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.76 % minus 0.20 % = 0.55 %	70.47 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-4.11 % minus 1.85 % = -5.96 %	-50.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.27 % minus 0.39 % = -1.66 %	-84.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.27 % minus 0.20 % = -0.47 %	-59.93 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-4.74 % minus 1.85 % = -6.58 %	-55.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.69 % minus 0.39 % = -2.08 %	-105.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-1.29 % minus 0.20 % = -1.49 %	-189.56 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 156 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.30 % minus 1.85 % = 1.45 %	12.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.18 % minus 0.39 % = 0.79 %	40.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.65 % minus 0.20 % = 0.45 %	56.67 %
Sell Signals - 131 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.26 % minus 1.85 % = 0.41 %	3.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.39 % = -0.40 %	-20.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.20 % = 0.18 %	22.96 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.45 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -6.58 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.79 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -2.08 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.45 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -1.49 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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