Moving Average Analysis of ATML

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

ATML: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for ATMEL Corp:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ATML stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ATML.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of ATMEL Corp
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.75 % minus 1.86 % = -0.12 %-0.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.69 % minus 0.38 % = -1.08 %-54.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.20 % = -0.57 %-72.53 %
Sell Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.86 % minus 1.86 % = -3.73 %-31.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.38 % = 0.52 %26.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.20 % = 0.42 %52.98 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 125 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.87 % minus 1.86 % = 0.00 %0.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 0.38 % = 0.56 %28.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.20 % = 0.33 %41.78 %
Sell Signals - 124 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.17 % minus 1.86 % = 0.30 %2.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.38 % = 0.49 %24.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.82 % minus 0.20 % = 0.62 %79.13 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.83 % minus 1.86 % = -2.69 %-22.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.25 % minus 0.38 % = -0.64 %-32.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.20 % = -0.09 %-11.28 %
Sell Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.85 % minus 1.86 % = -3.71 %-31.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.38 % = -0.31 %-15.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.20 % = 0.33 %41.78 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 417 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.63 % minus 1.86 % = -0.23 %-1.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.38 % = -0.22 %-11.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.20 % = -0.09 %-11.67 %
Sell Signals - 417 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.18 % minus 1.86 % = 0.32 %2.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.38 % = 0.16 %7.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.20 % = 0.21 %26.05 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 570 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.11 % minus 1.86 % = 0.25 %2.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.38 % = 0.22 %11.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.20 % = 0.15 %18.75 %
Sell Signals - 569 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.75 % minus 1.86 % = -0.11 %-0.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.38 % = -0.11 %-5.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.20 % = -0.02 %-2.49 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 232 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 1.86 % = -1.16 %-9.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.38 % = -0.33 %-16.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.20 % = -0.23 %-29.10 %
Sell Signals - 232 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 1.86 % = -1.03 %-8.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.38 % = -0.41 %-20.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.20 % = -0.20 %-24.92 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 152 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.72 % minus 1.86 % = -0.15 %-1.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.38 % = 0.01 %0.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.20 % = 0.08 %10.52 %
Sell Signals - 152 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.77 % minus 1.86 % = -0.10 %-0.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.38 % = 0.37 %18.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.20 % = 0.49 %62.17 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -3.91 % minus 1.86 % = -5.77 %-48.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.52 % minus 0.38 % = -1.91 %-96.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.71 % minus 0.20 % = -0.91 %-115.28 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -4.30 % minus 1.86 % = -6.16 %-52.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.61 % minus 0.38 % = -2.00 %-101.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.24 % minus 0.20 % = -1.44 %-182.66 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 160 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.08 % minus 1.86 % = 1.22 %10.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.07 % minus 0.38 % = 0.69 %35.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.20 % = 0.42 %53.61 %
Sell Signals - 134 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.29 % minus 1.86 % = 0.42 %3.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.38 % = -0.34 %-17.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.20 % = 0.18 %22.49 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.22 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -6.16 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.69 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -2.00 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.42 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -1.44 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Analysis for ATML Stock Prices