Moving Average Analysis of ATML

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From the Weekend Report 1/29/2010: The week revealed ATML to still be above the 200 bar average, but the space between the price and the average line is narrowing.

ATML: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for ATMEL Corp:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ATML stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ATML.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of ATMEL Corp
Companies In the News
Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Nicor Inc. and Archer-Daniels-Midland.

From the News Archive: (2/5/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Regions Financial Corporation, Marathon Oil Corporation, and Pactiv Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Genzyme Corporation.




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.75 % minus 1.89 % = -0.14 %-1.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.69 % minus 0.39 % = -1.08 %-54.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.20 % = -0.57 %-72.65 %
Sell Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.86 % minus 1.89 % = -3.75 %-31.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.39 % = 0.52 %26.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.20 % = 0.42 %52.85 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 131 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.86 % minus 1.89 % = -0.03 %-0.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.39 % = 0.45 %22.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.20 % = 0.23 %29.25 %
Sell Signals - 131 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.08 % minus 1.89 % = 0.19 %1.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.39 % = 0.46 %23.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.20 % = 0.59 %75.20 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 1.89 % = -2.39 %-20.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.39 % = -0.46 %-23.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.20 % = 0.03 %4.27 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.56 % minus 1.89 % = -3.45 %-29.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.39 % = -0.29 %-14.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.20 % = 0.18 %23.38 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 433 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.68 % minus 1.89 % = -0.21 %-1.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.39 % = -0.18 %-9.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.20 % = -0.05 %-6.70 %
Sell Signals - 433 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.12 % minus 1.89 % = 0.23 %1.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.39 % = 0.12 %6.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.20 % = 0.17 %21.76 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 590 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.09 % minus 1.89 % = 0.20 %1.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.39 % = 0.19 %9.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.20 % = 0.11 %13.98 %
Sell Signals - 589 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.75 % minus 1.89 % = -0.14 %-1.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.39 % = -0.13 %-6.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.20 % = -0.02 %-3.10 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 244 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 1.89 % = -1.17 %-9.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.39 % = -0.34 %-17.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.20 % = -0.22 %-28.14 %
Sell Signals - 244 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 1.89 % = -0.97 %-8.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.39 % = -0.40 %-20.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.20 % = -0.17 %-21.39 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 166 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.65 % minus 1.89 % = -0.24 %-2.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.39 % = -0.06 %-3.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.20 % = 0.03 %3.34 %
Sell Signals - 166 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.85 % minus 1.89 % = -0.05 %-0.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.39 % = 0.35 %17.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.20 % = 0.49 %62.31 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -3.91 % minus 1.89 % = -5.80 %-49.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.52 % minus 0.39 % = -1.91 %-97.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.71 % minus 0.20 % = -0.91 %-115.40 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -4.30 % minus 1.89 % = -6.19 %-52.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.61 % minus 0.39 % = -2.00 %-101.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.24 % minus 0.20 % = -1.44 %-182.79 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 166 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.10 % minus 1.89 % = 1.21 %10.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.02 % minus 0.39 % = 0.63 %31.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.20 % = 0.38 %48.49 %
Sell Signals - 138 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.30 % minus 1.89 % = 0.41 %3.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.39 % = -0.35 %-17.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.20 % = 0.16 %20.20 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.21 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -6.19 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.63 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -2.00 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.38 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -1.44 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Analysis of - ATML