Moving Average Analysis of AW

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From the Weekend Report 12/5/2008: Phase three, the next to the last of the 200 session moving average phases, is now in effect as the price is diverging in a downward direction from the average line.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Allied Waste Industries, Inc.
General Market Conditions
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to AW stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to AW stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Allied Waste Industries, Inc.
Companies In the News
Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.26 % minus 0.77 % = 2.49 %21.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.15 % = -0.31 %-15.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.08 % = 0.14 %17.60 %
Sell Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.24 % minus 0.77 % = -1.01 %-8.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.37 % minus 0.15 % = -0.52 %-26.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.80 % minus 0.08 % = -0.87 %-110.86 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 117 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.77 % = -0.85 %-7.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.15 % = -0.02 %-1.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.08 % = 0.09 %10.80 %
Sell Signals - 117 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.77 % = -0.09 %-0.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.15 % = -0.33 %-16.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.24 % minus 0.08 % = -0.32 %-40.10 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.77 % = -0.82 %-6.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.15 % = -0.38 %-19.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.44 % minus 0.08 % = -0.52 %-66.37 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.77 % = -0.42 %-3.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.15 % = 0.25 %12.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.08 % = 0.48 %61.02 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 409 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.37 % minus 0.77 % = 0.60 %5.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.15 % = 0.44 %22.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.08 % = 0.37 %46.39 %
Sell Signals - 409 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.40 % minus 0.77 % = 0.63 %5.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.15 % = 0.21 %10.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.08 % = 0.13 %15.90 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 563 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.77 % = -0.04 %-0.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.15 % = -0.17 %-8.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.10 %-12.09 %
Sell Signals - 563 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.77 % = -0.08 %-0.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.15 % = 0.00 %-0.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.08 % = -0.03 %-3.59 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 249 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.77 % = -0.55 %-4.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.43 % minus 0.15 % = -0.58 %-29.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.48 % minus 0.08 % = -0.56 %-70.72 %
Sell Signals - 248 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.77 % = -0.18 %-1.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.15 % = 0.17 %8.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.08 % = 0.14 %17.84 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 138 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.52 % minus 0.77 % = 0.75 %6.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.15 % = 0.30 %15.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.08 % = 0.06 %7.13 %
Sell Signals - 139 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 0.77 % = 0.17 %1.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.15 % = 0.60 %30.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.08 % = 0.63 %80.51 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.77 % = -0.24 %-2.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.75 % minus 0.15 % = -0.89 %-45.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %3.46 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.77 % = -0.60 %-5.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.65 % minus 0.15 % = -0.80 %-40.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.14 %-18.22 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 125 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.77 % = -0.90 %-7.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.15 % = -0.10 %-5.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.08 % = 0.00 %-0.07 %
Sell Signals - 134 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.43 % minus 0.77 % = 0.66 %5.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.59 % minus 0.15 % = -0.74 %-37.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.51 % minus 0.08 % = -0.59 %-75.21 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.49 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.01 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.44 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.87 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.37 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.87 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for AW Stock Prices