AYE Averages

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Allegheny Energy, Inc.
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Allegheny Energy, Inc.:

Different ways of averaging are tested on AYE stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to AYE stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Allegheny Energy, Inc.
Companies In the News
Monday, November 15, 2010: We have news on PG&E Corporation, ticker symbol PCG. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Cree, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories.

From the News Archive: (11/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at PetSmart, Inc. Meanwhile, bad news came from Intel, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and JP Morgan Chase.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.23 % minus 0.78 % = -3.01 %-25.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.89 % minus 0.15 % = -1.03 %-52.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.87 % minus 0.07 % = -0.94 %-119.62 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.78 % = -0.33 %-2.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.15 % = 0.51 %25.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.07 % = 0.23 %29.52 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 182 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.78 % = 0.06 %0.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.15 % = -0.18 %-9.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.07 % = -0.15 %-19.20 %
Sell Signals - 182 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.14 % minus 0.78 % = 0.37 %3.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.15 % = 0.27 %13.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.07 % = 0.27 %34.11 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.78 % = -0.84 %-7.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.15 % = -0.09 %-4.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.07 % = 0.06 %7.57 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.78 % = -0.83 %-7.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.15 % = -0.30 %-15.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.07 % = 0.22 %27.60 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 596 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.78 % = -0.16 %-1.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.15 % = -0.01 %-0.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.07 % = -0.06 %-8.19 %
Sell Signals - 595 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.78 % = 0.00 %0.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.15 % = -0.02 %-0.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.07 % = -0.01 %-0.96 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 820 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.78 % = -0.19 %-1.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.15 % = -0.08 %-4.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.04 %-5.05 %
Sell Signals - 820 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.78 % = -0.21 %-1.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.15 % = -0.02 %-0.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.04 %-5.52 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 313 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.21 % minus 0.78 % = 0.43 %3.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.15 % = 0.22 %11.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.07 % = 0.11 %13.71 %
Sell Signals - 313 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.78 % = 0.02 %0.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.15 % = -0.11 %-5.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.07 % = -0.15 %-19.49 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 205 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 0.78 % = 0.20 %1.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.15 % = -0.12 %-5.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.11 %-13.66 %
Sell Signals - 205 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.78 % = -0.18 %-1.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.15 % = -0.37 %-18.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.07 % = -0.36 %-45.67 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.32 % minus 0.78 % = -2.09 %-17.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.52 % minus 0.15 % = -0.66 %-33.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.07 % = -0.08 %-10.58 %
Sell Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.78 % = -0.22 %-1.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.15 % = 0.15 %7.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.07 % = 0.27 %34.19 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 230 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.78 % = 0.26 %2.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.15 % = 0.08 %4.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.07 % = -0.03 %-4.12 %
Sell Signals - 180 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.27 % minus 0.78 % = 0.50 %4.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.15 % = 0.20 %10.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.07 % = 0.19 %24.71 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.43 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -0.83 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.22 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.37 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.11 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.36 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..



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Allegheny Energy, Inc. Moving Averages - AYE