Moving Average Analysis of BA

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From the Weekend Report 1/29/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with BA 25.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

BA: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Boeing Aircraft:

Different ways of averaging are tested on BA stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for BA.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




Moving Average Convergence of Boeing Aircraft
Companies In the News
Thursday, February 04, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation and Eastman Kodak.

From the News Archive: (2/3/2010 ) Favorable events happened at C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., PNC Financial Services, and Briggs and Stratton. Meanwhile, bad news came from Northrop Grumman Corporation.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.92 % = -0.55 %-4.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.53 % minus 0.18 % = -0.71 %-36.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.09 % = -0.24 %-30.15 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.92 % = -0.85 %-7.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.18 % = 0.01 %0.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.09 % = -0.27 %-34.47 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 196 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.92 % = -0.46 %-3.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.18 % = -0.04 %-2.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %6.64 %
Sell Signals - 197 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 0.92 % = 0.01 %0.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.18 % = -0.12 %-6.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.17 %-21.43 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.21 % minus 0.92 % = -2.13 %-18.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.71 % minus 0.18 % = -0.89 %-45.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.69 % minus 0.09 % = -0.78 %-98.87 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.92 % = -0.97 %-8.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.18 % = -0.05 %-2.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %10.99 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 702 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.15 % minus 0.92 % = 0.23 %1.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.18 % = 0.01 %0.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %-2.78 %
Sell Signals - 702 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.92 % = 0.16 %1.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.18 % = -0.04 %-2.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %-3.19 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 947 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.92 % = -0.07 %-0.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.18 % = -0.08 %-4.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %-4.84 %
Sell Signals - 946 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.89 % minus 0.92 % = -0.03 %-0.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.18 % = 0.01 %0.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %-3.56 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 360 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.92 % = -0.35 %-2.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.18 % = -0.06 %-2.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %6.32 %
Sell Signals - 359 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.92 % = -0.58 %-4.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.18 % = -0.09 %-4.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.07 %-8.69 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 228 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.09 % minus 0.92 % = 0.17 %1.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.18 % = 0.24 %12.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.09 % = 0.22 %27.40 %
Sell Signals - 228 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.92 % = -0.16 %-1.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.18 % = 0.06 %2.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.08 %-10.57 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.33 % minus 0.92 % = -1.25 %-10.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.27 % minus 0.18 % = -0.45 %-22.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.10 %-13.07 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.55 % minus 0.92 % = 0.63 %5.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.18 % = 0.29 %14.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.09 % = 0.16 %19.97 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 240 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.92 % = -0.07 %-0.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.18 % = -0.07 %-3.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.03 %4.13 %
Sell Signals - 230 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.92 % = -0.14 %-1.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.18 % = -0.17 %-8.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.11 %-13.66 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.23 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.97 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.24 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.27 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.22 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.27 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for BA Stock Prices