Moving Average Analysis of BA

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

BA: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Boeing Aircraft:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to BA stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to BA stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Boeing Aircraft
Companies In the News
Monday, November 15, 2010: We have news on PG&E Corporation, ticker symbol PCG. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Cree, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories.

From the News Archive: (11/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at PetSmart, Inc. Meanwhile, bad news came from Intel, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and JP Morgan Chase.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.95 % = -0.34 %-2.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.48 % minus 0.18 % = -0.66 %-33.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.17 %-21.46 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.95 % = -0.76 %-6.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.18 % = 0.16 %8.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %-2.72 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 202 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.95 % = -0.44 %-3.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.18 % = 0.00 %-0.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.09 % = 0.07 %8.92 %
Sell Signals - 203 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 0.95 % = -0.03 %-0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.18 % = -0.11 %-5.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.13 %-16.75 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.78 % minus 0.95 % = -1.72 %-14.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.59 % minus 0.18 % = -0.77 %-39.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.58 % minus 0.09 % = -0.67 %-85.36 %
Sell Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.95 % = -0.50 %-4.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.18 % = 0.11 %5.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.09 % = 0.23 %29.15 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 724 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.15 % minus 0.95 % = 0.20 %1.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.18 % = 0.00 %0.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %-1.98 %
Sell Signals - 723 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.09 % minus 0.95 % = 0.14 %1.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.18 % = -0.05 %-2.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %-3.05 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 976 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.95 % = -0.10 %-0.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.18 % = -0.08 %-4.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %-3.70 %
Sell Signals - 976 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.95 % = -0.07 %-0.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.02 %-1.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.06 %-7.11 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 376 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.95 % = -0.31 %-2.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.18 % = -0.04 %-1.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.06 %7.21 %
Sell Signals - 375 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.95 % = -0.44 %-3.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.18 % = 0.02 %1.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.09 % = 0.00 %0.45 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 232 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.95 % = 0.09 %0.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.18 % = 0.18 %9.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.09 % = 0.20 %25.41 %
Sell Signals - 232 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.95 % = -0.21 %-1.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.18 % = 0.04 %1.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.07 %-9.34 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.95 % = -1.04 %-8.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.18 % = -0.32 %-16.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-1.83 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.70 % minus 0.95 % = 0.75 %6.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.18 % = 0.34 %17.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.09 % = 0.14 %17.43 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 250 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 0.95 % = 0.02 %0.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.03 %-1.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %6.85 %
Sell Signals - 236 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.95 % = -0.28 %-2.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.18 % = -0.23 %-11.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.12 %-15.63 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.20 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.76 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.18 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.23 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.20 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.13 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis of - BA