Moving Average Analysis of BA

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: BA has fallen -1.00 % below the 200 bar average line, increasing the distance over the past week.

BA: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Boeing Aircraft:

Different ways of averaging are tested on BA stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for BA.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Boeing Aircraft
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.88 % = -0.55 %-4.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.56 % minus 0.17 % = -0.73 %-36.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.09 % = -0.26 %-33.34 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.88 % = -0.58 %-4.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.17 % = -0.26 %-13.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.27 % minus 0.09 % = -0.36 %-45.50 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 194 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.88 % = -0.32 %-2.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.17 % = -0.01 %-0.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %11.77 %
Sell Signals - 195 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 0.88 % = 0.08 %0.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.17 % = -0.07 %-3.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.11 %-13.54 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.28 % minus 0.88 % = -2.16 %-18.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.55 % minus 0.17 % = -0.72 %-36.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.58 % minus 0.09 % = -0.67 %-84.92 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.88 % = -0.86 %-7.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.17 % = -0.14 %-7.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.11 %14.32 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 696 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.14 % minus 0.88 % = 0.26 %2.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.17 % = 0.00 %-0.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %-3.48 %
Sell Signals - 696 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.88 % = 0.16 %1.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.17 % = -0.09 %-4.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.05 %-6.45 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 930 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.88 % = -0.09 %-0.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.17 % = -0.07 %-3.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %-4.54 %
Sell Signals - 929 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.88 % = -0.04 %-0.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.17 % = 0.02 %0.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %-3.19 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 363 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.88 % = -0.36 %-3.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.17 % = -0.06 %-2.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %5.97 %
Sell Signals - 362 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.88 % = -0.48 %-4.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.17 % = -0.01 %-0.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-0.84 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 0.88 % = 0.05 %0.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.17 % = 0.22 %11.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.09 % = 0.22 %28.51 %
Sell Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.88 % = -0.26 %-2.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.17 % = 0.06 %3.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.07 %-8.85 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.03 % minus 0.88 % = -1.91 %-16.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.52 % minus 0.17 % = -0.69 %-34.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.09 % = -0.31 %-39.93 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.37 % minus 0.88 % = 0.49 %4.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.17 % = 0.12 %6.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.09 % = 0.18 %23.30 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 231 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.88 % = -0.15 %-1.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.17 % = -0.15 %-7.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-0.86 %
Sell Signals - 223 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.88 % = -0.31 %-2.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.17 % = -0.15 %-7.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.09 % = -0.09 %-11.40 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.26 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.86 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.22 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.36 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.22 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.36 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Boeing Aircraft Moving Averages - BA