Moving Average Analysis of BAC

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: BAC may have reached phase 4 of the oscillator cycle, which is to say that, while the price is still below the 200 day average, the gap has closed somewhat during the last week.

BAC: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Bank of America Corporation:

Different ways of averaging are tested on BAC stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for BAC.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Bank of America Corporation
Companies In the News
Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.91 % = -0.14 %-1.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.19 % = -0.14 %-7.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.10 % = -0.27 %-34.56 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.41 % minus 0.91 % = 0.50 %4.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.19 % = -0.32 %-16.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.10 % = -0.29 %-37.29 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.72 % minus 0.91 % = 0.80 %6.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.19 % = 0.39 %19.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.10 % = 0.04 %4.87 %
Sell Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.18 % minus 0.91 % = 0.26 %2.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.19 % = 0.11 %5.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.10 % = 0.14 %17.53 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.91 % = -1.14 %-9.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.19 % = -0.24 %-12.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.53 % minus 0.10 % = -0.62 %-79.30 %
Sell Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.83 % minus 0.91 % = -1.74 %-14.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.42 % minus 0.19 % = -0.61 %-30.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.62 % minus 0.10 % = -0.71 %-90.21 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 574 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.91 % = -0.05 %-0.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.19 % = -0.21 %-10.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.10 % = -0.11 %-14.37 %
Sell Signals - 574 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.91 % = -0.01 %-0.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.19 % = -0.24 %-12.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.10 % = -0.10 %-12.96 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 760 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.02 % minus 0.91 % = 0.10 %0.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.19 % = -0.01 %-0.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.10 % = 0.01 %0.80 %
Sell Signals - 760 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.91 % = 0.25 %2.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.19 % = 0.19 %9.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.10 % = 0.09 %11.61 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 325 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.52 % minus 0.91 % = 0.60 %5.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.19 % = 0.41 %20.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.10 % = 0.38 %47.91 %
Sell Signals - 325 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.23 % minus 0.91 % = 0.31 %2.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %1.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.10 % = -0.12 %-14.93 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 218 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.14 % minus 0.91 % = 0.22 %1.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.19 % = 0.38 %19.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.10 % = 0.42 %53.24 %
Sell Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.91 % = 0.16 %1.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.19 % = 0.35 %17.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.10 % = 0.17 %21.71 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.25 % minus 0.91 % = 1.34 %11.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.19 % = 0.60 %30.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.10 % = 0.53 %67.79 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -3.36 % minus 0.91 % = -4.27 %-36.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose -2.17 % minus 0.19 % = -2.36 %-120.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.17 % minus 0.10 % = -1.26 %-160.55 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 209 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.91 % = -0.04 %-0.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.19 % = -0.50 %-25.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.10 % = -0.28 %-34.93 %
Sell Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.91 % = -0.67 %-5.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.19 % = -0.07 %-3.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.10 % = 0.03 %4.12 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.34 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -4.27 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.60 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -2.36 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.53 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -1.26 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Analysis for BAC Stock Prices