Moving Average Analysis of BDX

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Becton, Dickinson and Co.
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to BDX stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for BDX.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




BDX: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Convergys Corporation and Coach, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fluor Corporation (NEW), Automatic Data Processing, and Home Depot.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.32 % minus 1.11 % = 2.21 %18.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 0.22 % = 0.78 %39.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.11 % = 0.66 %83.44 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 1.11 % = -0.55 %-4.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.22 % = 0.08 %3.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.11 % = -0.21 %-26.83 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 198 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.15 % minus 1.11 % = 0.04 %0.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.22 % = -0.07 %-3.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.11 % = 0.07 %9.04 %
Sell Signals - 197 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.17 % minus 1.11 % = 0.06 %0.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.22 % = 0.25 %12.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.11 % = 0.27 %34.92 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.35 % minus 1.11 % = 1.25 %10.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.22 % = -0.04 %-2.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.11 % = -0.05 %-5.81 %
Sell Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 1.11 % = -0.10 %-0.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 0.22 % = -0.67 %-34.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.64 % minus 0.11 % = -0.75 %-95.57 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 658 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.36 % minus 1.11 % = 0.25 %2.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.22 % = 0.02 %0.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.11 % = -0.01 %-1.58 %
Sell Signals - 658 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.22 % minus 1.11 % = 0.11 %0.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.22 % = -0.01 %-0.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.06 %-8.22 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 866 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.19 % minus 1.11 % = 0.08 %0.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.22 % = 0.08 %3.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.11 % = 0.01 %1.02 %
Sell Signals - 865 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 1.11 % = 0.00 %-0.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.22 % = 0.00 %-0.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.11 % = -0.06 %-7.05 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 372 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 1.11 % = -0.08 %-0.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.22 % = -0.06 %-3.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.11 % = -0.03 %-3.29 %
Sell Signals - 374 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.19 % minus 1.11 % = 0.08 %0.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.22 % = -0.07 %-3.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.11 % = 0.01 %1.17 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 268 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 1.11 % = -0.13 %-1.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.22 % = -0.01 %-0.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.11 % = -0.11 %-13.53 %
Sell Signals - 268 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.58 % minus 1.11 % = 0.47 %4.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.22 % = 0.35 %17.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.11 % = 0.25 %32.33 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.54 % minus 1.11 % = 2.43 %20.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.22 % = 0.63 %31.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.11 % = 0.22 %28.31 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 1.11 % = -0.33 %-2.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.22 % = -0.06 %-2.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.11 % = 0.08 %10.45 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 252 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 1.11 % = -0.12 %-1.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.22 % = 0.20 %10.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.11 % = 0.10 %12.98 %
Sell Signals - 175 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.87 % minus 1.11 % = 0.77 %6.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.22 % = 0.13 %6.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.11 % = 0.00 %0.14 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.43 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.55 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.78 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.67 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.66 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.75 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for Becton, Dickinson and Co. Stock Prices - BDX