Moving Average Analysis of BGG

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

From the Weekend Report 3/5/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with BGG 4.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

BGG: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Briggs and Stratton:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Price Behavior Surfaces

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Historical Volume

Risk-Volatility

Bernoulli Analysis

Sentiment

Back to BGG Table of Contents

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to BGG stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for BGG.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

Moving Average Convergence of Briggs and Stratton

Companies In the News

Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Convergys Corporation and Coach, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fluor Corporation (NEW), Automatic Data Processing, and Home Depot.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

	.
Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.04 % minus 0.91 % = 1.13 %	9.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.18 % = -0.07 %	-3.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.09 % = 0.14 %	17.45 %
Sell Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.73 % minus 0.91 % = -1.64 %	-13.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.69 % minus 0.18 % = -0.87 %	-44.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.48 % minus 0.09 % = -0.57 %	-72.71 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 169 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.00 % minus 0.91 % = 0.09 %	0.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.18 % = 0.05 %	2.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.09 % = 0.16 %	19.69 %
Sell Signals - 168 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.07 % minus 0.91 % = 0.16 %	1.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.18 % = 0.11 %	5.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.09 % = 0.01 %	0.91 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 44 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.11 % minus 0.91 % = 0.20 %	1.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.18 % = -0.18 %	-8.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.09 % = 0.02 %	2.59 %
Sell Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.47 % minus 0.91 % = 0.56 %	4.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.18 % = 0.11 %	5.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.31 % minus 0.09 % = -0.40 %	-51.10 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 555 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.91 % = -0.14 %	-1.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.18 % = -0.09 %	-4.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.12 %	-15.02 %
Sell Signals - 554 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.82 % minus 0.91 % = -0.09 %	-0.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.18 % = 0.02 %	1.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.09 % = 0.00 %	0.36 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 794 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.91 % = -0.21 %	-1.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.02 %	-1.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %	-1.35 %
Sell Signals - 793 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.69 % minus 0.91 % = -0.22 %	-1.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.18 % = -0.12 %	-5.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.09 % = -0.09 %	-11.51 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 299 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.44 % minus 0.91 % = 0.53 %	4.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.45 % minus 0.18 % = 0.27 %	13.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.09 % = 0.25 %	32.18 %
Sell Signals - 300 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 0.91 % = 0.23 %	1.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.18 % = -0.05 %	-2.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.08 %	-10.26 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 234 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.91 % = -0.33 %	-2.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.18 % = 0.12 %	5.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.09 % = 0.15 %	18.65 %
Sell Signals - 235 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 0.91 % = -0.30 %	-2.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.18 % = -0.09 %	-4.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.09 % = -0.08 %	-10.70 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.84 % minus 0.91 % = -0.07 %	-0.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.31 % minus 0.18 % = -0.49 %	-24.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.42 % minus 0.09 % = -0.51 %	-64.58 %
Sell Signals - 39 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.21 % minus 0.91 % = 0.30 %	2.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.15 % minus 0.18 % = 0.97 %	49.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.65 % minus 0.09 % = 0.56 %	71.58 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 214 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.38 % minus 0.91 % = 0.47 %	3.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.18 % = 0.36 %	18.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.09 % = 0.23 %	29.60 %
Sell Signals - 178 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.50 % minus 0.91 % = -0.41 %	-3.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.18 % = 0.34 %	17.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.09 % = 0.38 %	48.12 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.13 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.64 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.36 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.87 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.25 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.57 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for Briggs and Stratton

Detailed Average Level Analysis for BGG :

Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2008 by Stock-Predictions.Com

This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Moving Average Analysis of - BGG