Moving Average Analysis of BLL

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From the Weekend Report 2/12/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Ball Corporation
General Market Conditions
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Different ways of averaging are tested on BLL stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for BLL.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Ball Corporation
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Fluor Corporation (NEW) and Amgen, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Walgreen Company, Zimmer Holdings, Inc., and GameStop Corp.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Southwestern Energy Company.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.97 % = -0.91 %-7.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.19 % = 0.04 %1.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.10 % = 0.21 %26.69 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.83 % minus 0.97 % = -1.79 %-15.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.19 % = -0.15 %-7.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.16 %-20.91 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 182 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.47 % minus 0.97 % = 0.51 %4.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.19 % = 0.06 %3.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.10 % = 0.02 %2.40 %
Sell Signals - 182 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.97 % = 0.24 %2.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.19 % = 0.00 %-0.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.10 % = 0.15 %19.27 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 49 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.97 % = -0.49 %-4.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.19 % = -0.03 %-1.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.10 % = 0.14 %17.89 %
Sell Signals - 49 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.97 % = -0.40 %-3.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.19 % = 0.07 %3.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.10 % = 0.11 %13.50 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 589 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.97 % = 0.05 %0.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.19 % = 0.18 %9.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.10 % = 0.15 %18.45 %
Sell Signals - 590 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 0.97 % = 0.00 %-0.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.19 % = 0.09 %4.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.10 % = 0.08 %9.58 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 812 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 0.97 % = 0.02 %0.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.19 % = -0.08 %-3.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.02 %-2.63 %
Sell Signals - 811 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.97 % = 0.11 %0.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.19 % = 0.07 %3.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.10 % = 0.02 %2.95 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 326 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.97 % = 0.24 %2.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %1.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.10 % = 0.01 %1.83 %
Sell Signals - 326 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.18 % minus 0.97 % = 0.21 %1.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.19 % = -0.04 %-2.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.10 % = 0.01 %1.80 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.34 % minus 0.97 % = 0.38 %3.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.19 % = 0.23 %11.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.10 % = 0.16 %20.36 %
Sell Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.14 % minus 0.97 % = 0.17 %1.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.19 % = 0.09 %4.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.10 % = 0.16 %20.29 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.97 % = -0.23 %-1.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.19 % = -0.18 %-9.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.79 % minus 0.10 % = -0.89 %-112.82 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.34 % minus 0.97 % = 0.37 %3.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 0.19 % = 0.77 %38.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.10 % = 0.31 %39.00 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 215 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.97 % = 0.12 %1.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.19 % = -0.04 %-2.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.10 % = -0.08 %-9.64 %
Sell Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 0.97 % = 0.43 %3.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.19 % = 0.12 %6.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.10 % = 0.07 %9.28 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.51 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.79 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.23 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.16 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.21 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.16 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Ball Corporation Moving Averages - BLL