Moving Average Analysis of BSX

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Boston Scientific Corporation
General Market Conditions
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to BSX stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to BSX stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




BSX: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Convergys Corporation and Coach, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fluor Corporation (NEW), Automatic Data Processing, and Home Depot.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -3.89 % minus 0.77 % = -4.65 %-39.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.17 % = -0.08 %-3.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.37 % minus 0.09 % = 1.29 %163.66 %
Sell Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.27 % minus 0.77 % = -3.03 %-25.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.17 % = 0.17 %8.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.09 % = -0.43 %-54.64 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 130 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.77 % = -0.68 %-5.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.17 % = 0.05 %2.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.03 %3.84 %
Sell Signals - 131 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.59 % minus 0.77 % = -1.35 %-11.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.17 % = -0.48 %-24.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.09 % = -0.31 %-39.04 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -3.07 % minus 0.77 % = -3.84 %-32.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.76 % minus 0.17 % = -0.93 %-47.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.77 % minus 0.09 % = -0.86 %-108.82 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.81 % minus 0.77 % = -3.58 %-30.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.09 % minus 0.17 % = -1.26 %-63.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.69 % minus 0.09 % = -0.77 %-98.21 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 366 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.77 % = -0.02 %-0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.17 % = -0.02 %-0.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.06 %8.06 %
Sell Signals - 367 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.77 % = -0.22 %-1.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.17 % = -0.21 %-10.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.10 %-12.95 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 546 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.77 % = 0.31 %2.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.17 % = 0.21 %10.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.09 % = 0.25 %32.22 %
Sell Signals - 545 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.77 % = 0.11 %0.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.17 % = 0.01 %0.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.05 %-6.93 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 215 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.77 % = 0.11 %0.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.17 % = 0.63 %31.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.09 % = 0.47 %59.40 %
Sell Signals - 214 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.89 % minus 0.77 % = 0.12 %1.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.17 % = 0.34 %17.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.09 % = 0.02 %2.47 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 158 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 0.77 % = 0.23 %1.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.17 % = 0.00 %-0.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.09 % = 0.04 %5.56 %
Sell Signals - 158 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.31 % minus 0.77 % = 0.54 %4.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.17 % = 0.17 %8.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.09 % = 0.28 %35.51 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.86 % minus 0.77 % = -3.63 %-30.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.14 % minus 0.17 % = -1.31 %-66.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.86 % minus 0.09 % = -1.94 %-246.92 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.47 % minus 0.77 % = 1.70 %14.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.17 % = 0.65 %32.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.09 % = 0.44 %55.43 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 154 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.29 % minus 0.77 % = 0.52 %4.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.17 % = 0.03 %1.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-1.22 %
Sell Signals - 118 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 0.77 % = 0.23 %1.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.17 % = 0.60 %30.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.09 % = 0.45 %57.06 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.52 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -3.58 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.63 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -1.26 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.29 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.77 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for BSX Stock Prices