Moving Average Analysis of C

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From the Weekend Report 1/29/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

C: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
General Market Conditions
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Different ways of averaging are tested on C stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to C stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




C: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
In the news, Friday, February 05, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with ACM Income Fund, ticker symbol ACG. Also, there are breaking events concerning United Technologies (UTX) and MicroSoft (MSFT)



MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.94 % minus 0.89 % = -2.83 %-23.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.09 % minus 0.19 % = -1.27 %-64.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.09 % = -0.40 %-50.40 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.89 % = -0.66 %-5.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.96 % minus 0.19 % = -1.15 %-58.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.89 % minus 0.09 % = -0.98 %-124.49 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 210 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.26 % minus 0.89 % = 0.38 %3.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.19 % = 0.27 %13.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.09 % = 0.08 %10.06 %
Sell Signals - 209 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 0.89 % = 0.22 %1.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.19 % = -0.23 %-11.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.14 %-18.11 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.91 % minus 0.89 % = -1.80 %-15.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.19 % = -0.04 %-2.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.09 % = 0.21 %26.32 %
Sell Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.89 % = -1.14 %-9.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.19 % = -0.18 %-9.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.09 % = -0.19 %-23.73 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 663 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.89 % = 0.02 %0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.19 % = -0.04 %-2.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.11 %-13.86 %
Sell Signals - 662 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.09 % minus 0.89 % = 0.20 %1.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.19 % = 0.09 %4.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.09 % = 0.08 %10.17 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 924 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.89 % = 0.19 %1.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.19 % = 0.04 %2.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.09 % = 0.01 %1.27 %
Sell Signals - 924 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.10 % minus 0.89 % = 0.21 %1.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.19 % = 0.02 %1.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.06 %7.23 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 390 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 0.89 % = 0.50 %4.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.19 % = 0.21 %10.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.09 % = 0.24 %30.68 %
Sell Signals - 391 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.36 % minus 0.89 % = 0.47 %4.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.19 % = 0.10 %5.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %11.23 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 256 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.89 % = 0.14 %1.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.19 % = 0.16 %8.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.09 % = 0.27 %34.04 %
Sell Signals - 257 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.89 % = -0.02 %-0.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.19 % = -0.11 %-5.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %-4.96 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.08 % minus 0.89 % = -1.97 %-16.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.43 % minus 0.19 % = -0.61 %-31.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.09 % = -0.33 %-41.46 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 0.89 % = 0.05 %0.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.19 % = 0.58 %29.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.09 % = 0.46 %57.99 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 258 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.89 % = -0.24 %-2.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.19 % = -0.13 %-6.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.09 % = -0.30 %-38.08 %
Sell Signals - 224 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.89 % = -0.51 %-4.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.19 % = 0.10 %5.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.09 % = 0.15 %19.38 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.50 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.14 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.27 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.15 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.27 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.98 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for CitiGroup Stock Prices - C