Moving Average Analysis of C

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

C: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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Different ways of averaging are tested on C stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to C stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




C: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Pitney Bowes Inc., ticker symbol PBI. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. and Pinnacle West Capital Corporation.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) A favorable event happened at The Travelers Companies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fiserv, Inc., MeadWestvaco Corp., and Nicor Inc..




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.94 % minus 0.88 % = -2.82 %-23.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.09 % minus 0.19 % = -1.28 %-64.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.09 % = -0.40 %-50.46 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.88 % = -0.03 %-0.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.54 % minus 0.19 % = -0.73 %-37.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.09 % = -0.59 %-74.35 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 205 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.88 % = 0.28 %2.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.19 % = 0.23 %11.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %6.84 %
Sell Signals - 205 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.88 % = 0.01 %0.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.19 % = -0.20 %-10.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.09 % = -0.09 %-11.28 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.08 % minus 0.88 % = -1.96 %-16.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.19 % = -0.16 %-8.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.06 %7.31 %
Sell Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.88 % = -1.04 %-8.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.19 % = -0.24 %-12.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.12 %-15.74 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 650 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.88 % = 0.13 %1.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.19 % = -0.03 %-1.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.11 %-13.35 %
Sell Signals - 649 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.17 % minus 0.88 % = 0.28 %2.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.19 % = 0.10 %4.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.09 % = 0.07 %9.50 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 903 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.88 % = 0.15 %1.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.19 % = 0.04 %1.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.09 % = 0.00 %0.09 %
Sell Signals - 902 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.88 % = 0.17 %1.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.19 % = 0.01 %0.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.09 % = 0.04 %4.74 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 383 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.38 % minus 0.88 % = 0.50 %4.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.19 % = 0.24 %12.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.09 % = 0.26 %33.18 %
Sell Signals - 383 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 0.88 % = 0.51 %4.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.19 % = 0.10 %5.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.09 % = 0.10 %12.69 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 254 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.88 % = -0.12 %-0.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.19 % = 0.11 %5.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.09 % = 0.27 %34.64 %
Sell Signals - 254 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.88 % = -0.08 %-0.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.19 % = -0.11 %-5.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %-2.58 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.08 % minus 0.88 % = -1.96 %-16.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.43 % minus 0.19 % = -0.62 %-31.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.09 % = -0.33 %-41.53 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.88 % = 0.17 %1.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.19 % = 0.44 %22.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.09 % = 0.40 %51.25 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 250 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 0.88 % = 0.03 %0.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.19 % = -0.08 %-3.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.09 % = -0.26 %-33.47 %
Sell Signals - 220 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.88 % = -0.51 %-4.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.19 % = 0.14 %7.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.09 % = 0.18 %22.43 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.50 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.04 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.24 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.73 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.27 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.59 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for C Stock Prices