Moving Average Analysis of CAG

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

CAG: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for ConAgra Foods, Inc.:

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to CAG stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for CAG.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of ConAgra Foods, Inc.

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	In the news, Thursday, March 18, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Also, there are breaking events concerning AOL Time Warner (TWX) and Mylan Inc. (MYL)

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.76 % minus 0.88 % = -0.12 %	-1.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.73 % minus 0.17 % = 0.56 %	28.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.09 % = 0.35 %	45.05 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.88 % = -0.81 %	-6.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.45 % minus 0.17 % = -0.62 %	-31.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.50 % minus 0.09 % = -0.59 %	-74.72 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 178 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 0.88 % = -0.03 %	-0.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.17 % = 0.01 %	0.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.07 %	8.60 %
Sell Signals - 177 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 0.88 % = 0.29 %	2.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.17 % = 0.29 %	14.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.09 % = 0.20 %	25.92 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.62 % minus 0.88 % = -1.50 %	-12.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.17 % = -0.27 %	-13.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.08 %	-9.95 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.88 % = -0.73 %	-6.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.17 % = 0.34 %	17.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.09 % = 0.37 %	46.97 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 593 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.88 % = -0.11 %	-0.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.17 % = -0.04 %	-2.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.09 % = 0.00 %	0.29 %
Sell Signals - 592 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.88 % = -0.11 %	-0.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.17 % = -0.02 %	-0.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %	-1.62 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 828 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.89 % minus 0.88 % = 0.01 %	0.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.17 % = 0.05 %	2.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %	6.90 %
Sell Signals - 828 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 0.88 % = -0.03 %	-0.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.17 % = -0.04 %	-2.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %	-2.89 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 330 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.19 % minus 0.88 % = 0.31 %	2.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.17 % = 0.29 %	14.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.09 % = 0.21 %	26.54 %
Sell Signals - 330 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.93 % minus 0.88 % = 0.05 %	0.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.17 % = 0.15 %	7.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.11 %	14.16 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 234 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.01 % minus 0.88 % = 0.13 %	1.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.17 % = 0.21 %	10.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.09 % = 0.20 %	25.40 %
Sell Signals - 234 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.99 % minus 0.88 % = 0.12 %	0.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.17 % = 0.17 %	8.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.09 % = 0.14 %	17.74 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.88 % = -0.53 %	-4.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.17 % = 0.25 %	12.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.09 % = 0.16 %	20.54 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.29 % minus 0.88 % = -1.17 %	-9.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.17 % = -0.37 %	-18.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.09 % = -0.19 %	-23.53 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 216 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.88 % = -0.50 %	-4.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.17 % = -0.16 %	-8.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.12 %	-15.69 %
Sell Signals - 179 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.27 % minus 0.88 % = 0.39 %	3.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.17 % = 0.12 %	5.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.07 %	8.44 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.31 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.17 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.56 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.62 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.35 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.59 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

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