CAI Averages

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From the Weekend Report 5/1/2009: CAI may have reached phase 4 of the oscillator cycle, which is to say that, while the price is still below the 200 day average, the gap has closed somewhat during the last week.

CAI: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for CACI Intl:

Different ways of averaging are tested on CAI stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to CAI stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




CAI: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Texas Instruments Incorporated and Convergys Corporation.

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Amgen, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Coach, Inc., Fluor Corporation (NEW), and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.79 % minus 1.25 % = 0.54 %4.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.26 % = -0.30 %-15.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.14 % = 0.12 %15.13 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.78 % minus 1.25 % = 0.53 %4.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.26 % = 0.23 %11.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.14 % = 0.02 %2.60 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 197 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.47 % minus 1.25 % = 1.22 %10.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.23 % minus 0.26 % = 0.97 %49.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.14 % = 0.69 %87.64 %
Sell Signals - 195 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 1.25 % = -0.31 %-2.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.26 % = 0.02 %0.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.14 % = -0.12 %-15.14 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 68 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.18 % minus 1.25 % = -0.06 %-0.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.26 % = 0.54 %27.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.14 % = 0.54 %69.18 %
Sell Signals - 67 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.51 % minus 1.25 % = -1.76 %-14.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.65 % minus 0.26 % = -0.91 %-46.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.58 % minus 0.14 % = -0.71 %-90.78 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 650 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.17 % minus 1.25 % = -0.08 %-0.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.26 % = -0.02 %-1.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.14 % = 0.06 %7.59 %
Sell Signals - 650 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.21 % minus 1.25 % = -0.04 %-0.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.26 % = 0.00 %0.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.14 % = 0.01 %0.81 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 855 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.23 % minus 1.25 % = -0.02 %-0.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.26 % = -0.10 %-5.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.14 % = -0.11 %-14.46 %
Sell Signals - 854 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.31 % minus 1.25 % = 0.06 %0.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.26 % = -0.10 %-5.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.14 % = -0.04 %-4.93 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 374 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 1.25 % = -0.68 %-5.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.26 % = -0.19 %-9.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.14 % = -0.17 %-21.81 %
Sell Signals - 374 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.36 % minus 1.25 % = 0.11 %0.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.26 % = 0.34 %17.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.14 % = 0.25 %31.68 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 256 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 1.25 % = -0.64 %-5.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.50 % minus 0.26 % = -0.76 %-38.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 0.14 % = -0.58 %-74.21 %
Sell Signals - 258 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.50 % minus 1.25 % = 0.25 %2.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.26 % = 0.20 %10.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.14 % = 0.18 %23.17 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 44 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 1.25 % = -1.27 %-10.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.26 % = 0.81 %41.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.14 % = 0.74 %94.06 %
Sell Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.17 % minus 1.25 % = -0.08 %-0.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.69 % minus 0.26 % = -0.95 %-48.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.70 % minus 0.14 % = -0.83 %-105.70 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 211 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.19 % minus 1.25 % = -0.06 %-0.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.26 % = -0.19 %-9.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.14 % = -0.23 %-29.67 %
Sell Signals - 176 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 1.25 % = -0.56 %-4.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.26 % = -0.27 %-13.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.14 % = -0.13 %-16.19 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.22 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.76 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.97 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.95 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.74 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.83 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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CACI Intl Moving Averages - CAI