Moving Average Analysis of CAT

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: CAT may have reached phase 4 of the oscillator cycle, which is to say that, while the price is still below the 200 day average, the gap has closed somewhat during the last week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Caterpillar

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Caterpillar:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Price Behavior Surfaces

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Sliding Stops

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Historical Volume

Bernoulli Analysis

Momentum Investing

Sentiment

Back to CAT Table of Contents

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to CAT stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for CAT.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Caterpillar

Companies In the News

Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Pitney Bowes Inc., ticker symbol PBI. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. and Pinnacle West Capital Corporation.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) A favorable event happened at The Travelers Companies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fiserv, Inc., MeadWestvaco Corp., and Nicor Inc..

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

	.
Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.30 % minus 0.79 % = 1.51 %	12.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.98 % minus 0.16 % = 0.82 %	41.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.08 % = 0.07 %	9.43 %
Sell Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.73 % minus 0.79 % = 0.94 %	7.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.62 % minus 0.16 % = 0.46 %	23.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.08 % = 0.26 %	32.49 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 213 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.93 % minus 0.79 % = 0.13 %	1.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.16 % = 0.13 %	6.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.08 % = 0.07 %	9.03 %
Sell Signals - 213 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.99 % minus 0.79 % = 0.20 %	1.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.16 % = 0.20 %	10.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.08 % = 0.01 %	1.20 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 55 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.79 % = -0.26 %	-2.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.16 % = -0.12 %	-5.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.08 % = -0.16 %	-19.81 %
Sell Signals - 54 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.79 % = -0.53 %	-4.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.30 % minus 0.16 % = -0.46 %	-23.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.33 % minus 0.08 % = -0.41 %	-52.46 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 635 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.79 % = -0.36 %	-3.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.16 % = -0.16 %	-8.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.08 %	-10.70 %
Sell Signals - 635 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.79 % = -0.21 %	-1.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.16 % = -0.01 %	-0.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.08 % = 0.02 %	2.06 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 852 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.98 % minus 0.79 % = 0.19 %	1.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.16 % = 0.03 %	1.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %	3.98 %
Sell Signals - 851 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.88 % minus 0.79 % = 0.09 %	0.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.16 % = 0.02 %	1.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.08 % = -0.05 %	-6.38 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 342 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.41 % minus 0.79 % = 0.62 %	5.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.16 % = 0.14 %	7.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.08 % = 0.29 %	37.04 %
Sell Signals - 342 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.00 % minus 0.79 % = 0.21 %	1.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.18 % minus 0.16 % = -0.33 %	-16.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.08 % = -0.27 %	-34.32 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 235 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.79 % = 0.04 %	0.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.16 % = 0.19 %	9.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.08 % = 0.24 %	30.28 %
Sell Signals - 235 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.88 % minus 0.79 % = 0.09 %	0.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.16 % = -0.16 %	-8.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.08 % = -0.17 %	-22.05 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 40 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.96 % minus 0.79 % = 1.17 %	9.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.16 % = 0.10 %	4.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.08 % = 0.22 %	28.26 %
Sell Signals - 44 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.84 % minus 0.79 % = 1.05 %	8.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.16 % = 0.00 %	0.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.15 %	-18.80 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 258 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.79 % = -0.33 %	-2.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.16 % = -0.07 %	-3.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.09 %	-11.93 %
Sell Signals - 215 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.65 % minus 0.79 % = -0.15 %	-1.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.16 % = -0.21 %	-10.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.08 % = 0.08 %	10.66 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.51 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.53 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.82 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.46 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.29 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.41 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for Caterpillar

Detailed Average Level Analysis for CAT :

Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2008 by Stock-Predictions.Com

This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Moving Average Convergence for Caterpillar Stock Prices - CAT