Moving Average Analysis of CCU

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From the Weekend Report 2/5/2010: CCU is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 2.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

CCU: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
General Market Conditions
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Different ways of averaging are tested on CCU stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for CCU.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




CCU: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Thursday, February 04, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation and Eastman Kodak.

From the News Archive: (2/3/2010 ) Favorable events happened at C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., PNC Financial Services, and Briggs and Stratton. Meanwhile, bad news came from Northrop Grumman Corporation.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.69 % minus 0.89 % = -2.59 %-21.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.17 % = 0.00 %0.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.08 % = -0.39 %-49.76 %
Sell Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.41 % minus 0.89 % = 0.51 %4.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.17 % = -0.08 %-4.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.08 % = 0.30 %37.54 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 104 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.89 % = -0.51 %-4.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.17 % = -0.10 %-4.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.07 %-8.62 %
Sell Signals - 104 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.12 % minus 0.89 % = 0.23 %1.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.17 % = 0.43 %21.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.08 % = 0.50 %63.22 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.89 % = -0.89 %-7.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 0.17 % = 0.81 %41.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.08 % = 0.61 %77.50 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.89 % = -1.04 %-8.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.17 % = 0.17 %8.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.08 % = 0.58 %73.90 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 333 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.32 % minus 0.89 % = 0.42 %3.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.17 % = -0.03 %-1.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.01 %-1.88 %
Sell Signals - 334 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.49 % minus 0.89 % = 0.59 %5.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.17 % = 0.09 %4.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.02 %-2.42 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 470 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.89 % = 0.14 %1.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.17 % = 0.10 %5.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.08 % = 0.08 %10.15 %
Sell Signals - 469 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 0.89 % = 0.09 %0.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.17 % = -0.06 %-2.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.02 %-2.16 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 177 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.48 % minus 0.89 % = 0.58 %4.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.17 % = 0.40 %20.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.08 % = 0.43 %54.00 %
Sell Signals - 177 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.89 % = -0.29 %-2.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.17 % = -0.10 %-5.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.09 %-11.45 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 141 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.89 % = -0.09 %-0.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.17 % = -0.17 %-8.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %3.29 %
Sell Signals - 141 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.89 % = -0.78 %-6.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.17 % = -0.33 %-16.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.08 % = -0.22 %-27.62 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.02 % minus 0.89 % = -1.92 %-16.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.17 % = 0.77 %39.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.08 % = 0.46 %58.62 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.89 % = -0.35 %-2.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.17 % = -0.10 %-5.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %3.54 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 153 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.89 % = -0.93 %-7.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.41 % minus 0.17 % = -0.59 %-29.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.08 % = -0.44 %-55.96 %
Sell Signals - 122 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.89 % = 0.19 %1.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.17 % = 0.63 %31.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.08 % = 0.39 %50.08 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.58 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.04 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.81 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.33 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.61 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.22 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..



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Moving Average Analysis for CCU Stock Prices