Moving Average Analysis of CHKP

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to CHKP stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for CHKP.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




CHKP: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)



MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 2.03 % = -1.07 %-9.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.41 % = 0.05 %2.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.22 % = -0.25 %-31.54 %
Sell Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.26 % minus 2.03 % = 0.23 %1.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.41 % = 0.00 %-0.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.60 % minus 0.22 % = -0.81 %-103.25 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 101 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.52 % minus 2.03 % = -0.51 %-4.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.89 % minus 0.41 % = 0.48 %24.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.22 % = 0.28 %35.13 %
Sell Signals - 100 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 2.03 % = -2.19 %-18.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 0.41 % = -0.86 %-43.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.22 % = -0.48 %-60.81 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.44 % minus 2.03 % = 1.41 %11.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.52 % minus 0.41 % = 1.10 %56.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.22 % = 0.36 %46.11 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.80 % minus 2.03 % = 0.77 %6.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.25 % minus 0.41 % = 0.84 %42.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.19 % minus 0.22 % = 0.97 %123.20 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 325 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.96 % minus 2.03 % = 0.93 %7.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.41 % = 0.36 %18.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.22 % = 0.33 %42.39 %
Sell Signals - 325 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.13 % minus 2.03 % = 1.10 %9.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.41 % = 0.33 %16.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.22 % = 0.18 %22.25 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 455 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.75 % minus 2.03 % = -0.28 %-2.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.41 % = 0.08 %3.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.22 % = 0.14 %17.61 %
Sell Signals - 455 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.64 % minus 2.03 % = -0.39 %-3.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.41 % = -0.12 %-5.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.22 % = -0.19 %-24.01 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 2.03 % = -0.87 %-7.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.41 % = 0.19 %9.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.22 % = 0.28 %35.65 %
Sell Signals - 189 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.77 % minus 2.03 % = -0.27 %-2.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.41 % = 0.26 %13.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.22 % = 0.06 %8.16 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 126 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 2.03 % = -1.99 %-16.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.75 % minus 0.41 % = -1.16 %-58.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.24 % minus 0.22 % = -0.45 %-57.61 %
Sell Signals - 126 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 2.03 % = -1.60 %-13.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.74 % minus 0.41 % = -1.16 %-58.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.77 % minus 0.22 % = -0.98 %-124.59 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.31 % minus 2.03 % = 0.27 %2.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.41 % = -0.46 %-23.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.22 % = 0.35 %44.36 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 2.03 % = -1.05 %-8.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.41 % = -0.81 %-41.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.22 % = -0.19 %-24.28 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 130 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.56 % minus 2.03 % = 0.53 %4.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 0.41 % = 0.53 %27.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.22 % = 0.20 %25.41 %
Sell Signals - 96 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.70 % minus 2.03 % = -0.33 %-2.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.41 % = 0.33 %16.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.22 % = 0.23 %29.25 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.41 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.19 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.10 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.16 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.36 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.98 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..



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Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. Moving Averages - CHKP