CI Averages

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: After increasing the spread over the week, CI is now 10.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of CIGNA Corporation

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to CI stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for CI.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of CIGNA Corporation

Companies In the News

Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.86 % minus 1.01 % = 0.85 %	7.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.19 % = 0.23 %	11.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %	-0.93 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.68 % minus 1.01 % = 1.67 %	14.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %	1.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.09 % = 0.32 %	40.65 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 194 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.56 % minus 1.01 % = 0.55 %	4.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.19 % = 0.28 %	14.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.09 % = 0.04 %	4.78 %
Sell Signals - 195 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.19 % minus 1.01 % = 0.18 %	1.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %	1.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %	-1.28 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 51 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.30 % minus 1.01 % = 2.29 %	19.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.19 % = 0.64 %	32.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 0.09 % = 0.38 %	48.42 %
Sell Signals - 51 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.98 % minus 1.01 % = 0.97 %	8.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.19 % = -0.12 %	-6.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.09 % = 0.06 %	7.99 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 628 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.91 % minus 1.01 % = -0.10 %	-0.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.19 % = 0.00 %	-0.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %	-3.42 %
Sell Signals - 629 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 1.01 % = -0.24 %	-2.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.19 % = -0.17 %	-8.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.17 %	-22.05 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 876 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.91 % minus 1.01 % = -0.10 %	-0.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.19 % = -0.04 %	-2.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.06 %	-7.03 %
Sell Signals - 875 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.08 % minus 1.01 % = 0.07 %	0.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.19 % = 0.10 %	5.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %	6.82 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 325 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.45 % minus 1.01 % = 0.44 %	3.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.19 % = 0.33 %	16.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.09 % = 0.31 %	39.70 %
Sell Signals - 324 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.05 % minus 1.01 % = 0.05 %	0.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.19 % = -0.26 %	-13.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.17 % minus 0.09 % = -0.26 %	-33.04 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 222 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.55 % minus 1.01 % = 0.54 %	4.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.19 % = 0.37 %	18.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.09 % = 0.16 %	20.89 %
Sell Signals - 222 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.23 % minus 1.01 % = 0.23 %	1.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.19 % = 0.14 %	6.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %	-0.92 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.62 % minus 1.01 % = 0.61 %	5.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.19 % = 0.34 %	17.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %	11.34 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.51 % minus 1.01 % = 0.50 %	4.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.45 % minus 0.19 % = -0.64 %	-32.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.43 % minus 0.09 % = -0.52 %	-66.45 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 259 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.61 % minus 1.01 % = 0.60 %	5.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.19 % = -0.14 %	-7.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.11 % minus 0.09 % = -0.21 %	-26.05 %
Sell Signals - 187 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.63 % minus 1.01 % = -0.38 %	-3.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 0.19 % = 0.36 %	18.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.09 % = 0.34 %	43.79 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.29 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.38 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.64 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.64 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.38 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.52 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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CIGNA Corporation Moving Averages - CI