CINF Averages

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The current price is 12.00 % above the 200 bar SMA and it has increased the distance since last week. This represents phase 1 of the MACD cycle.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Cincinnati Financial Corporation

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Cincinnati Financial Corporation:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Bernoulli Analysis

Momentum Investing

Sentiment

Back to CINF Table of Contents

Different ways of averaging are tested on CINF stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to CINF stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

	.
Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.62 % minus 0.85 % = -0.23 %	-1.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.17 % = 0.34 %	17.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.09 % = 0.21 %	27.15 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.33 % minus 0.85 % = -1.18 %	-10.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.50 % minus 0.17 % = -0.67 %	-34.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.12 %	-14.82 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 143 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.59 % minus 0.85 % = -0.26 %	-2.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.17 % = -0.26 %	-13.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %	-1.61 %
Sell Signals - 144 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.65 % minus 0.85 % = -0.20 %	-1.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.17 % = 0.03 %	1.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.09 % = 0.00 %	-0.36 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 48 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.29 % minus 0.85 % = 0.44 %	3.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.17 % = 0.30 %	15.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.09 % = 0.16 %	19.78 %
Sell Signals - 48 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.39 % minus 0.85 % = -1.24 %	-10.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.56 % minus 0.17 % = -0.73 %	-37.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.41 % minus 0.09 % = -0.50 %	-63.30 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 539 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.50 % minus 0.85 % = -0.35 %	-2.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.17 % = -0.09 %	-4.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %	-5.13 %
Sell Signals - 540 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 0.85 % = -0.37 %	-3.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.17 % = -0.12 %	-6.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %	-5.63 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 728 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.59 % minus 0.85 % = -0.26 %	-2.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.17 % = -0.01 %	-0.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.03 %	4.06 %
Sell Signals - 727 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.85 % = -0.33 %	-2.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.17 % = -0.12 %	-5.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.07 %	-8.52 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 323 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.85 % = -0.67 %	-5.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.17 % = -0.36 %	-18.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.22 % minus 0.09 % = -0.31 %	-38.74 %
Sell Signals - 322 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.79 % minus 0.85 % = -0.06 %	-0.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.17 % = 0.27 %	13.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 0.09 % = 0.40 %	51.35 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 210 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.85 % = -0.79 %	-6.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.21 % minus 0.17 % = -0.38 %	-19.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.17 %	-21.21 %
Sell Signals - 210 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.85 % = -0.52 %	-4.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.17 % = -0.03 %	-1.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.09 % = 0.13 %	16.56 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.93 % minus 0.85 % = 1.08 %	9.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.17 % = 0.36 %	18.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.09 % = 0.07 %	9.49 %
Sell Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.38 % minus 0.85 % = -2.23 %	-18.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.37 % minus 0.17 % = -0.54 %	-27.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.26 % minus 0.09 % = -0.35 %	-44.39 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 174 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 0.85 % = 0.40 %	3.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.17 % = 0.37 %	18.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.09 % = 0.26 %	32.96 %
Sell Signals - 153 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.66 % minus 0.85 % = -0.19 %	-1.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.17 % = -0.17 %	-8.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.11 %	-13.62 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.08 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -2.23 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.37 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.73 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.26 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.50 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Detailed Average Level Analysis for CINF :

Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2010 by Stock-Predictions.Com

This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.