Moving Average Analysis of CLX

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From the Weekend Report 3/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

CLX: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for The Clorox Company:

Different ways of averaging are tested on CLX stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for CLX.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of The Clorox Company
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Convergys Corporation and Coach, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fluor Corporation (NEW), Automatic Data Processing, and Home Depot.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.27 % minus 0.98 % = 1.28 %10.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %1.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.10 % = -0.50 %-63.22 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.22 % minus 0.98 % = 1.24 %10.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.19 % = 0.24 %12.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.10 % = -0.06 %-7.66 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 200 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.98 % = -0.04 %-0.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.19 % = 0.14 %7.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.10 % = 0.03 %4.37 %
Sell Signals - 199 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.98 % = 0.06 %0.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.19 % = -0.10 %-4.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.10 % = 0.00 %-0.36 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.98 % = -0.89 %-7.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.19 % = -0.48 %-24.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.10 % = -0.38 %-48.73 %
Sell Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.18 % minus 0.98 % = 0.19 %1.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.19 % = 0.14 %6.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.10 % = 0.10 %12.64 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 659 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.98 % = 0.17 %1.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.19 % = -0.02 %-0.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.04 %-5.67 %
Sell Signals - 659 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.23 % minus 0.98 % = 0.25 %2.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.19 % = 0.12 %6.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.10 % = 0.14 %18.16 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 859 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 0.98 % = 0.15 %1.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.19 % = 0.14 %6.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.10 % = 0.14 %17.94 %
Sell Signals - 859 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.97 % minus 0.98 % = -0.01 %-0.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.19 % = -0.04 %-2.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.04 %-5.05 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 353 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.33 % minus 0.98 % = 0.35 %2.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.19 % = 0.10 %4.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.10 % = 0.10 %13.21 %
Sell Signals - 355 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.12 % minus 0.98 % = 0.14 %1.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.19 % = -0.03 %-1.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %-3.54 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 213 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 0.98 % = 0.40 %3.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.02 %1.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %-3.58 %
Sell Signals - 214 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.07 % minus 0.98 % = 0.09 %0.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.19 % = -0.09 %-4.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.10 % = -0.06 %-7.31 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.98 % = 0.06 %0.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.84 % minus 0.19 % = -1.04 %-52.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.52 % minus 0.10 % = -0.62 %-78.62 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.74 % minus 0.98 % = 0.76 %6.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.19 % = 0.02 %1.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.10 % = 0.29 %37.26 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 239 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.97 % minus 0.98 % = -0.02 %-0.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.02 %1.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.10 % = 0.00 %0.58 %
Sell Signals - 176 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.18 % minus 0.98 % = 0.20 %1.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.19 % = -0.06 %-3.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.10 % = 0.03 %3.52 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.28 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.01 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.14 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.10 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.14 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal was -0.06 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for The Clorox Company Stock Prices - CLX