Moving Average Analysis of CMA

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From the Weekend Report 10/29/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Comerica Incorporated

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Different ways of averaging are tested on CMA stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to CMA stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.94 % minus 1.06 % = 0.88 %	7.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.72 % minus 0.23 % = 1.50 %	76.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.69 % minus 0.11 % = 0.58 %	73.49 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.27 % minus 1.06 % = -1.33 %	-11.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.71 % minus 0.23 % = -0.93 %	-47.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.11 % = -0.26 %	-33.52 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 159 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.10 % minus 1.06 % = 0.04 %	0.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.23 % = -0.08 %	-4.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.11 % = -0.04 %	-5.63 %
Sell Signals - 159 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 1.06 % = -0.96 %	-8.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.48 % minus 0.23 % = -0.70 %	-35.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.23 % minus 0.11 % = -0.35 %	-44.16 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 1.06 % = -0.62 %	-5.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.23 % = -0.32 %	-16.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.23 % minus 0.11 % = -0.34 %	-43.42 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.17 % minus 1.06 % = -2.23 %	-18.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.97 % minus 0.23 % = -1.20 %	-60.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.26 % minus 0.11 % = -0.38 %	-47.73 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 461 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.92 % minus 1.06 % = -0.14 %	-1.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.23 % = -0.07 %	-3.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.11 % = 0.02 %	2.21 %
Sell Signals - 462 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.92 % minus 1.06 % = -0.14 %	-1.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.23 % = -0.02 %	-1.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.11 % = 0.01 %	1.17 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 655 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.99 % minus 1.06 % = -0.07 %	-0.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.23 % = 0.07 %	3.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.11 % = 0.07 %	8.89 %
Sell Signals - 655 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.97 % minus 1.06 % = -0.09 %	-0.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.23 % = 0.02 %	1.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.11 % = 0.00 %	-0.51 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 262 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.68 % minus 1.06 % = -0.38 %	-3.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.23 % = -0.22 %	-11.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.11 % = -0.03 %	-4.16 %
Sell Signals - 261 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.03 % minus 1.06 % = -0.03 %	-0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.23 % = -0.19 %	-9.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.11 % = -0.06 %	-7.50 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 191 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 1.06 % = -0.49 %	-4.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.23 % = -0.03 %	-1.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.11 % = 0.03 %	3.95 %
Sell Signals - 191 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.12 % minus 1.06 % = 0.06 %	0.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.23 % = 0.34 %	17.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.11 % = 0.25 %	32.16 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.87 % minus 1.06 % = -0.19 %	-1.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.23 % = -0.31 %	-15.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.53 % minus 0.11 % = -0.64 %	-81.45 %
Sell Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.56 % minus 1.06 % = -2.62 %	-22.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.86 % minus 0.23 % = -1.09 %	-55.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.61 % minus 0.11 % = -0.72 %	-91.64 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 185 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.29 % minus 1.06 % = 0.23 %	1.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.23 % = 0.03 %	1.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.11 % = 0.07 %	9.24 %
Sell Signals - 139 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 1.06 % = -0.61 %	-5.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.23 % = -0.18 %	-9.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.11 % = 0.12 %	15.19 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.88 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.62 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.50 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.20 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.58 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.72 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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