Moving Average Analysis of CMCSA

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Comcast Corporation

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to CMCSA stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to CMCSA stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

	Companies In the News
	Friday, March 19, 2010: We have news on L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc., ticker symbol LLL. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and TECO Energy, Inc.. From the News Archive: (3/18/2010 ) Bad news came from MicroSoft, General Electric, Sempra Energy, and Walmart.

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.71 % minus 0.99 % = 1.72 %	14.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.35 % minus 0.21 % = 1.14 %	57.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.11 % = -0.17 %	-22.08 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.78 % minus 0.99 % = 0.78 %	6.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.26 % minus 0.21 % = -1.47 %	-74.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.82 % minus 0.11 % = -0.93 %	-118.09 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 165 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.15 % minus 0.99 % = 0.15 %	1.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.21 % = 0.56 %	28.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.11 % = 0.21 %	27.03 %
Sell Signals - 165 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.99 % = -0.88 %	-7.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.30 % minus 0.21 % = -0.52 %	-26.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.11 % = -0.25 %	-31.24 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.99 % minus 0.99 % = 2.00 %	16.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.54 % minus 0.21 % = 1.33 %	67.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.96 % minus 0.11 % = 0.85 %	107.89 %
Sell Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.09 % minus 0.99 % = 0.10 %	0.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.49 % minus 0.21 % = -0.70 %	-35.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.86 % minus 0.11 % = -0.97 %	-122.71 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 525 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.96 % minus 0.99 % = -0.03 %	-0.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.21 % = -0.11 %	-5.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.11 % = -0.13 %	-16.74 %
Sell Signals - 525 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.98 % minus 0.99 % = -0.01 %	-0.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.21 % = -0.05 %	-2.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.16 %	-20.13 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 692 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.04 % minus 0.99 % = 0.04 %	0.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.21 % = 0.12 %	5.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.11 % = 0.06 %	7.30 %
Sell Signals - 692 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.96 % minus 0.99 % = -0.04 %	-0.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.21 % = 0.03 %	1.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.11 % = -0.10 %	-12.77 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 304 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 0.99 % = 0.17 %	1.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.21 % = 0.11 %	5.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.11 % = 0.13 %	16.22 %
Sell Signals - 304 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.58 % minus 0.99 % = 0.59 %	4.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.21 % = 0.21 %	10.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.11 % = 0.00 %	-0.10 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 197 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.99 % = -0.70 %	-5.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.21 % = -0.07 %	-3.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.11 % = 0.02 %	3.10 %
Sell Signals - 197 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.68 % minus 0.99 % = -0.32 %	-2.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.21 % = 0.02 %	1.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.06 %	-7.62 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.35 % minus 0.99 % = 1.36 %	11.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.81 % minus 0.21 % = 0.60 %	30.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.89 % minus 0.11 % = 0.78 %	99.20 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.03 % minus 0.99 % = 1.03 %	8.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.81 % minus 0.21 % = 0.59 %	30.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 0.11 % = 0.74 %	93.50 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 191 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.82 % minus 0.99 % = -0.18 %	-1.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.21 % = -0.13 %	-6.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.11 % = -0.26 %	-32.90 %
Sell Signals - 162 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.59 % minus 0.99 % = -0.40 %	-3.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.24 % minus 0.21 % = -0.45 %	-22.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.16 % minus 0.11 % = -0.27 %	-33.70 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.00 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.88 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.33 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.47 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.85 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.97 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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