COH Averages

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Coach, Inc.
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to COH stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to COH stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Coach, Inc.
Companies In the News
Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at LoJack Corp and Martha Stewart. Meanwhile, bad news came from Patterson Companies, Inc. and LSI Corporation.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 5 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.15 % minus 2.36 % = -1.21 %-10.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.88 % minus 0.47 % = -1.35 %-68.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.86 % minus 0.23 % = -1.10 %-139.19 %
Sell Signals - 5 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.87 % minus 2.36 % = -4.22 %-35.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.47 % = -0.86 %-43.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.23 % = -0.72 %-91.28 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 69 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.61 % minus 2.36 % = 0.25 %2.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.47 % = -0.51 %-26.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.23 % = -0.72 %-91.84 %
Sell Signals - 68 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.56 % minus 2.36 % = 0.21 %1.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.47 % = 0.25 %12.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.23 % = 0.01 %1.35 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.70 % minus 2.36 % = 2.35 %19.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.84 % minus 0.47 % = 1.38 %69.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.23 % = 0.67 %84.98 %
Sell Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.38 % minus 2.36 % = 0.02 %0.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.47 % = -0.23 %-11.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.23 % = -0.39 %-50.12 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 209 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.79 % minus 2.36 % = 0.43 %3.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.47 % = 0.09 %4.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.23 % = -0.01 %-1.39 %
Sell Signals - 209 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.00 % minus 2.36 % = 0.65 %5.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.47 % = 0.13 %6.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.23 % = 0.01 %1.24 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 321 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.33 % minus 2.36 % = -0.03 %-0.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.47 % = 0.30 %15.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.23 % = 0.35 %44.95 %
Sell Signals - 320 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.15 % minus 2.36 % = -0.21 %-1.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.47 % = 0.06 %3.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.23 % = 0.11 %14.25 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 122 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.49 % minus 2.36 % = -0.87 %-7.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.47 % = 0.19 %9.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.23 % = 0.27 %33.75 %
Sell Signals - 123 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.69 % minus 2.36 % = -0.67 %-5.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.47 % = 0.41 %20.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.23 % = 0.47 %59.76 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 65 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.19 % minus 2.36 % = -0.17 %-1.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.47 % = 0.38 %19.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.23 % = 0.24 %30.30 %
Sell Signals - 66 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.34 % minus 2.36 % = -1.02 %-8.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.47 % = -0.22 %-11.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.23 % = -0.25 %-31.90 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 8 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 7.68 % minus 2.36 % = 5.33 %45.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose 5.17 % minus 0.47 % = 4.70 %238.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 4.08 % minus 0.23 % = 3.84 %487.95 %
Sell Signals - 9 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 2.36 % = -2.09 %-17.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.47 % = 0.39 %19.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.23 % = 0.41 %52.34 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 81 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.17 % minus 2.36 % = 1.81 %15.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.34 % minus 0.47 % = 0.88 %44.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.23 % = 0.15 %19.30 %
Sell Signals - 50 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.70 % minus 2.36 % = -0.65 %-5.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.46 % minus 0.47 % = -0.93 %-47.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.51 % minus 0.23 % = -0.74 %-93.89 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 5.33 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -4.22 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 4.70 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.93 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 3.84 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.74 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..



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Moving Average Analysis for COH Stock Prices