Moving Average Analysis of CSCO

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Cisco Systems
General Market Conditions
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Different ways of averaging are tested on CSCO stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to CSCO stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Cisco Systems
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Texas Instruments Incorporated and Convergys Corporation.

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Amgen, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Coach, Inc., Fluor Corporation (NEW), and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 2.33 % = -2.17 %-18.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.83 % minus 0.46 % = -1.29 %-65.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.04 % minus 0.23 % = -1.28 %-162.29 %
Sell Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 2.33 % = -2.78 %-23.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.13 % minus 0.46 % = -1.59 %-80.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.06 % minus 0.23 % = -1.30 %-164.50 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 149 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.52 % minus 2.33 % = 0.19 %1.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.46 % = 0.22 %11.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.23 % = 0.05 %6.30 %
Sell Signals - 148 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.32 % minus 2.33 % = -1.01 %-8.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.46 % = -0.27 %-13.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.23 % = -0.07 %-8.54 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.94 % minus 2.33 % = -0.39 %-3.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.10 % minus 0.46 % = 0.64 %32.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.97 % minus 0.23 % = 0.73 %92.77 %
Sell Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.40 % minus 2.33 % = -0.93 %-7.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.46 % = -0.07 %-3.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.23 % = -0.11 %-14.05 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 458 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.78 % minus 2.33 % = -0.55 %-4.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.46 % = -0.10 %-5.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.23 % = -0.04 %-4.45 %
Sell Signals - 458 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.89 % minus 2.33 % = -0.44 %-3.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.46 % = 0.03 %1.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.23 % = 0.11 %14.53 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 675 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.44 % minus 2.33 % = 0.11 %0.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.46 % = 0.31 %15.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.23 % = 0.34 %42.67 %
Sell Signals - 676 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.97 % minus 2.33 % = -0.36 %-3.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.46 % = -0.25 %-12.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.23 % = -0.22 %-28.16 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 275 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 2.33 % = -1.34 %-11.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.46 % = -0.28 %-14.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.23 % = -0.13 %-16.37 %
Sell Signals - 276 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.55 % minus 2.33 % = -0.78 %-6.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.46 % = -0.35 %-17.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.23 % = -0.30 %-37.63 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 174 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 2.33 % = -1.43 %-12.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.46 % = -0.16 %-7.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.23 % = -0.11 %-13.48 %
Sell Signals - 175 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.27 % minus 2.33 % = -1.06 %-8.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.46 % = -0.20 %-10.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.23 % = -0.17 %-21.74 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.89 % minus 2.33 % = -4.22 %-35.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.57 % minus 0.46 % = -2.03 %-103.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.11 % minus 0.23 % = -1.35 %-171.14 %
Sell Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.25 % minus 2.33 % = -2.58 %-21.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.46 % = -0.31 %-15.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.23 % = 0.24 %30.49 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 179 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.65 % minus 2.33 % = 0.32 %2.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.46 % = -0.02 %-0.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.23 % = -0.23 %-29.04 %
Sell Signals - 140 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 2.33 % = -1.41 %-11.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.46 % = -0.22 %-10.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.23 % = -0.20 %-25.08 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.32 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -2.78 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.64 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.59 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.73 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.30 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Cisco Systems Moving Averages - CSCO