Moving Average Indicators for DD

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, DD would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -5.00 % under the line.

DD: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on DD stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for DD.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

Companies In the News

Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Pitney Bowes Inc., ticker symbol PBI. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. and Pinnacle West Capital Corporation.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) A favorable event happened at The Travelers Companies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fiserv, Inc., MeadWestvaco Corp., and Nicor Inc..

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.45 % minus 0.72 % = 0.73 %	6.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.14 % = -0.05 %	-2.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.07 % = 0.15 %	19.08 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.72 % = -0.39 %	-3.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.22 % minus 0.14 % = -0.36 %	-18.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.07 % = -0.19 %	-24.19 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.72 % = -0.26 %	-2.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.14 % = 0.01 %	0.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.07 % = 0.09 %	11.60 %
Sell Signals - 217 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.72 % = -0.39 %	-3.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.14 % = -0.13 %	-6.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.07 % = -0.13 %	-16.60 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 63 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.72 % = -0.32 %	-2.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.40 % minus 0.14 % = -0.55 %	-27.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.07 % = -0.26 %	-33.36 %
Sell Signals - 62 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.72 % = -0.46 %	-3.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.14 % = -0.21 %	-10.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.07 % = 0.14 %	17.43 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 697 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 0.72 % = -0.23 %	-1.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.14 % = -0.10 %	-5.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.01 % minus 0.07 % = -0.09 %	-11.02 %
Sell Signals - 698 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.72 % = -0.18 %	-1.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.14 % = -0.04 %	-2.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.07 % = 0.03 %	3.43 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 933 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.72 % = -0.21 %	-1.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.14 % = -0.09 %	-4.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.07 % = 0.03 %	3.66 %
Sell Signals - 933 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.72 % = -0.21 %	-1.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.14 % = -0.13 %	-6.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.10 %	-12.83 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 395 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.76 % minus 0.72 % = 0.04 %	0.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.14 % = 0.07 %	3.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.07 % = 0.01 %	1.63 %
Sell Signals - 394 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.73 % minus 0.72 % = 0.01 %	0.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.14 % = -0.02 %	-0.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.04 %	-5.67 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 285 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.60 % minus 0.72 % = -0.12 %	-1.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.14 % = -0.05 %	-2.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.07 % = 0.04 %	5.08 %
Sell Signals - 285 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.73 % minus 0.72 % = 0.01 %	0.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.14 % = -0.06 %	-3.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.07 % = -0.02 %	-2.15 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.72 % = -0.20 %	-1.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.38 % minus 0.14 % = -0.53 %	-26.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.42 % minus 0.07 % = -0.49 %	-62.05 %
Sell Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.72 % = -0.52 %	-4.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.14 % = -0.09 %	-4.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.07 % = 0.03 %	3.30 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 253 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.72 % minus 0.72 % = 0.00 %	-0.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.14 % = -0.02 %	-1.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.11 %	-13.54 %
Sell Signals - 208 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.72 % = -0.16 %	-1.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.14 % = -0.22 %	-11.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.07 % = -0.18 %	-22.26 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.73 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.52 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.07 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.36 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.15 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.19 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

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Moving Average Analysis of - DD