Moving Average Indicators for DD

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From the Weekend Report 1/2/2009: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on DD stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for DD.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

	Companies In the News
	Friday, January 02, 2009: We have news on Verizon, ticker symbol VZ. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning C.R. Bard, Inc. and Raytheon Company. From the News Archive: (1/2/2009 ) Bad news came from Wisconsin Energy Corporation, Intel, AT and T, and Williams Companies, Inc..

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.46 % minus 0.68 % = 0.78 %	6.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.13 % = -0.02 %	-0.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.07 % = 0.16 %	20.78 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.68 % = -0.38 %	-3.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.23 % minus 0.13 % = -0.37 %	-18.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.07 % = -0.21 %	-26.59 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 214 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.50 % minus 0.68 % = -0.18 %	-1.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.13 % = 0.00 %	-0.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.07 % = 0.09 %	11.25 %
Sell Signals - 213 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.68 % = -0.39 %	-3.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.13 % = -0.13 %	-6.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.07 % = -0.13 %	-16.15 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 64 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.68 % = -0.30 %	-2.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.34 % minus 0.13 % = -0.47 %	-24.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.16 % minus 0.07 % = -0.22 %	-28.49 %
Sell Signals - 63 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.68 % = -0.50 %	-4.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.13 % = -0.17 %	-8.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.07 % = 0.14 %	17.98 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 680 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 0.68 % = -0.20 %	-1.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.13 % = -0.09 %	-4.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.07 % = -0.09 %	-10.87 %
Sell Signals - 681 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.68 % = -0.15 %	-1.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.13 % = -0.02 %	-0.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.07 % = 0.05 %	6.07 %
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MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 909 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.50 % minus 0.68 % = -0.18 %	-1.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.13 % = -0.10 %	-4.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.07 % = 0.03 %	3.88 %
Sell Signals - 908 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.68 % = -0.17 %	-1.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.13 % = -0.13 %	-6.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.07 % = -0.09 %	-11.64 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 386 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.76 % minus 0.68 % = 0.07 %	0.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.13 % = 0.05 %	2.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.07 % = 0.00 %	0.12 %
Sell Signals - 387 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.73 % minus 0.68 % = 0.05 %	0.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.13 % = -0.04 %	-2.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.07 % = -0.07 %	-8.46 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 282 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.68 % = -0.11 %	-0.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.13 % = -0.04 %	-1.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.07 % = 0.05 %	6.95 %
Sell Signals - 283 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.74 % minus 0.68 % = 0.06 %	0.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.13 % = -0.06 %	-3.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.07 % = -0.01 %	-1.71 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.68 % = -0.23 %	-1.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.41 % minus 0.13 % = -0.55 %	-27.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.42 % minus 0.07 % = -0.49 %	-62.05 %
Sell Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.68 % = -0.48 %	-4.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.13 % = -0.08 %	-3.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.07 % = 0.03 %	3.86 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 248 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.68 % = 0.09 %	0.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.13 % = 0.00 %	0.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.07 % = -0.06 %	-7.73 %
Sell Signals - 203 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.68 % = -0.22 %	-1.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.13 % = -0.23 %	-11.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.13 % minus 0.07 % = -0.20 %	-25.68 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.78 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.50 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.05 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.37 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.16 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.21 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

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