Moving Average Indicators for DELL

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From the Weekend Report 11/12/2010: Phase three, the next to the last of the 200 session moving average phases, is now in effect as the price is diverging in a downward direction from the average line.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Dell Inc.
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Dell Inc.:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to DELL stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for DELL.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Dell Inc.
Companies In the News
In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)



MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.32 % minus 2.14 % = 1.18 %10.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.43 % = -0.14 %-6.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.22 % = 0.54 %68.16 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.50 % minus 2.14 % = 0.36 %3.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.26 % minus 0.43 % = 0.83 %41.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 0.22 % = 0.77 %97.19 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 148 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.82 % minus 2.14 % = -0.32 %-2.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.43 % = 0.18 %9.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.22 % = 0.15 %18.50 %
Sell Signals - 148 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 2.14 % = -0.90 %-7.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.43 % = -0.18 %-8.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.22 % = -0.20 %-25.41 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.40 % minus 2.14 % = 1.26 %10.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.43 % = 0.35 %17.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 0.22 % = -0.67 %-85.43 %
Sell Signals - 44 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.54 % minus 2.14 % = -0.60 %-5.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.43 % = -0.61 %-31.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.22 % = -0.21 %-26.80 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 501 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.13 % minus 2.14 % = -0.01 %-0.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.43 % = -0.17 %-8.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.22 % = -0.02 %-2.73 %
Sell Signals - 502 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.08 % minus 2.14 % = -0.06 %-0.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.43 % = -0.07 %-3.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.22 % = -0.05 %-6.50 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 729 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.26 % minus 2.14 % = 0.12 %1.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.43 % = 0.21 %10.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.22 % = 0.14 %17.26 %
Sell Signals - 729 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.97 % minus 2.14 % = -0.17 %-1.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.43 % = -0.14 %-7.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.22 % = -0.14 %-17.98 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 277 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.41 % minus 2.14 % = -0.73 %-6.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.43 % = -0.33 %-16.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.22 % = -0.04 %-5.15 %
Sell Signals - 276 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.94 % minus 2.14 % = -0.20 %-1.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.43 % = 0.06 %2.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.22 % = 0.11 %13.39 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 208 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 2.14 % = -2.59 %-21.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.43 % = -0.79 %-40.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.22 % = -0.27 %-34.44 %
Sell Signals - 208 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 2.14 % = -1.76 %-14.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.43 % = -0.26 %-13.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.22 % = 0.05 %5.86 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 5.25 % minus 2.14 % = 3.11 %26.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.83 % minus 0.43 % = 1.40 %71.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 0.22 % = 1.02 %128.98 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.95 % minus 2.14 % = 1.81 %15.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 2.05 % minus 0.43 % = 1.62 %82.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.15 % minus 0.22 % = 0.93 %117.57 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.65 % minus 2.14 % = 0.51 %4.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.89 % minus 0.43 % = 0.46 %23.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.74 % minus 0.22 % = 0.52 %65.87 %
Sell Signals - 147 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.68 % minus 2.14 % = 0.54 %4.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.43 % = -0.24 %-12.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.22 % = -0.21 %-27.17 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 3.11 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -1.76 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.40 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.61 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.02 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.21 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..



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Moving Average Indicators for Dell Inc.