Moving Average Analysis of DIS

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From the Weekend Report 1/8/2010: DIS is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 23.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

DIS: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on DIS stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for DIS.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Walt Disney

Companies In the News

Thursday, February 04, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation and Eastman Kodak.

From the News Archive: (2/3/2010 ) Favorable events happened at C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., PNC Financial Services, and Briggs and Stratton. Meanwhile, bad news came from Northrop Grumman Corporation.

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 1.06 % = 0.11 %	0.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.21 % = 0.37 %	18.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.10 % = 0.30 %	38.53 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.56 % minus 1.06 % = 0.50 %	4.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.21 % = -0.08 %	-3.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.10 % = 0.14 %	17.64 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 213 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.88 % minus 1.06 % = -0.18 %	-1.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.21 % = -0.08 %	-3.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.10 % = -0.10 %	-12.10 %
Sell Signals - 213 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.69 % minus 1.06 % = -0.37 %	-3.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.21 % = -0.27 %	-13.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.16 %	-20.69 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 1.06 % = -0.84 %	-7.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.21 % = 0.17 %	8.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.10 % = 0.42 %	53.28 %
Sell Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 1.06 % = -0.23 %	-1.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.21 % = -0.13 %	-6.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.10 % = -0.08 %	-10.11 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 668 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.92 % minus 1.06 % = -0.14 %	-1.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.21 % = 0.02 %	0.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %	-3.74 %
Sell Signals - 668 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.92 % minus 1.06 % = -0.14 %	-1.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.21 % = -0.02 %	-0.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.10 % = 0.01 %	1.27 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 968 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.84 % minus 1.06 % = -0.22 %	-1.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.21 % = -0.09 %	-4.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.10 % = -0.01 %	-1.77 %
Sell Signals - 967 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.86 % minus 1.06 % = -0.20 %	-1.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.21 % = -0.08 %	-3.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.10 % = -0.01 %	-1.07 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 399 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 1.06 % = -0.68 %	-5.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.21 % = -0.10 %	-5.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %	-3.47 %
Sell Signals - 399 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 1.06 % = -0.67 %	-5.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.21 % = -0.17 %	-8.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.10 % = -0.11 %	-13.44 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 266 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 1.06 % = -0.62 %	-5.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.21 % = 0.00 %	-0.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.10 % = 0.12 %	14.69 %
Sell Signals - 266 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 1.06 % = -0.65 %	-5.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.21 % = -0.08 %	-4.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.17 %	-21.82 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.65 % minus 1.06 % = 0.59 %	4.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.21 % = -0.03 %	-1.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.01 % minus 0.10 % = -0.11 %	-14.00 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.80 % minus 1.06 % = 0.74 %	6.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.21 % = -0.31 %	-15.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.42 % minus 0.10 % = -0.53 %	-67.12 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 266 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.51 % minus 1.06 % = 0.45 %	3.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.59 % minus 0.21 % = 0.38 %	19.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.10 % = 0.17 %	21.06 %
Sell Signals - 203 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 1.06 % = -0.58 %	-4.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 0.21 % = -0.40 %	-20.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.19 %	-23.74 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.59 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.67 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.38 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.40 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.42 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.53 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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Moving Average Analysis of - DIS