Moving Average Analysis of DIS

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From the Weekend Report 11/14/2008: Phase three, the next to the last of the 200 session moving average phases, is now in effect as the price is diverging in a downward direction from the average line.

DIS: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Walt Disney:

Different ways of averaging are tested on DIS stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for DIS.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




Moving Average Convergence of Walt Disney
Companies In the News
Thursday, November 20, 2008: We have news on American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intuitive Surgical, Inc. and Boeing Aircraft.

From the News Archive: (11/19/2008 ) Favorable events happened at Bank of America Corporation, CitiGroup, and Corning. Meanwhile, bad news came from UST Inc..




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.58 % minus 1.02 % = 0.56 %4.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.20 % = 0.59 %29.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.10 % = 0.56 %71.14 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.70 % minus 1.02 % = 0.68 %5.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.20 % = -0.06 %-3.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.10 % = 0.23 %29.28 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 204 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 1.02 % = -0.07 %-0.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.20 % = -0.02 %-1.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.10 % = -0.01 %-1.27 %
Sell Signals - 203 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 1.02 % = -0.11 %-0.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.20 % = -0.17 %-8.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.10 % = -0.12 %-14.76 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 1.02 % = -0.80 %-6.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.20 % = 0.17 %8.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.10 % = 0.42 %52.89 %
Sell Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 1.02 % = -0.03 %-0.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.20 % = 0.03 %1.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.10 % = 0.01 %0.99 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 652 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 1.02 % = -0.14 %-1.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.20 % = 0.01 %0.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.04 %-5.00 %
Sell Signals - 652 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 1.02 % = -0.14 %-1.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.20 % = 0.03 %1.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.10 % = 0.05 %6.37 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 931 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 1.02 % = -0.27 %-2.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.20 % = -0.11 %-5.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %-3.55 %
Sell Signals - 930 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 1.02 % = -0.25 %-2.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.20 % = -0.12 %-6.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.10 % = -0.06 %-7.62 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 387 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 1.02 % = -0.53 %-4.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.20 % = -0.14 %-6.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.05 %-5.74 %
Sell Signals - 389 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 1.02 % = -0.45 %-3.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.20 % = -0.10 %-5.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.04 %-5.56 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 257 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 1.02 % = -0.63 %-5.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.20 % = -0.01 %-0.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.10 % = 0.12 %15.68 %
Sell Signals - 258 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 1.02 % = -0.67 %-5.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.20 % = -0.08 %-4.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.17 %-21.65 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.37 % minus 1.02 % = 0.34 %2.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.20 % = -0.19 %-9.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.10 % = -0.31 %-39.03 %
Sell Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.84 % minus 1.02 % = 0.82 %6.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.20 % = -0.29 %-14.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.42 % minus 0.10 % = -0.52 %-66.34 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 252 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.67 % minus 1.02 % = 0.65 %5.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.20 % = 0.43 %22.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.10 % = 0.25 %31.47 %
Sell Signals - 197 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 1.02 % = -0.51 %-4.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.20 % = -0.30 %-15.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.10 % = -0.07 %-9.25 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.65 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -0.67 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.59 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.30 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.56 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.52 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Walt Disney Moving Averages - DIS