Moving Average Indicators for DJIA

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

Breaking News
Free Reports    HOT | RRD | RSH | HOG | IR | ISRG | HRS | HST | RTN | FRX | FTR
Look for another Symbol?
Can't find your Company?
 

From the Weekend Report 6/19/2009: There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Dow Industrials
General Market Conditions
Subscribe

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Dow Industrials:

This section analyzes the predictive abilities of several flavors of averaging as applied to the DJIA index. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to DJIA stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Dow Industrials
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

.
Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.55 % = 0.24 %2.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.11 % = 0.19 %9.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.05 % = 0.05 %5.78 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.55 % = -0.72 %-6.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.11 % = -0.04 %-2.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.05 % = -0.02 %-2.26 %
.
Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 215 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.55 % = 0.08 %0.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.11 % = 0.11 %5.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.05 % = 0.06 %8.15 %
Sell Signals - 215 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.55 % = -0.01 %-0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.11 % = 0.10 %5.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.05 % = 0.10 %13.07 %
.
Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 44 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.55 % = 0.09 %0.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.11 % = 0.18 %9.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.05 % = 0.36 %45.73 %
Sell Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.55 % = 0.17 %1.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.11 % = 0.32 %16.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.05 % = 0.35 %44.81 %
.
MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 667 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.55 % = -0.04 %-0.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.11 % = -0.03 %-1.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.05 % = -0.02 %-2.87 %
Sell Signals - 666 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.55 % = -0.01 %-0.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.11 % = 0.03 %1.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.05 % = 0.02 %2.35 %
.
MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 921 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.55 % = -0.05 %-0.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.11 % = 0.06 %3.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.05 % = 0.07 %8.62 %
Sell Signals - 921 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.55 % = -0.13 %-1.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.11 % = -0.05 %-2.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.05 % = 0.00 %-0.58 %
.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 368 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.55 % = -0.09 %-0.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.11 % = 0.08 %4.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.05 % = 0.06 %7.72 %
Sell Signals - 368 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.55 % = -0.11 %-0.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.11 % = -0.05 %-2.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.05 % = -0.09 %-10.85 %
.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 265 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.55 % = -0.18 %-1.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.11 % = 0.05 %2.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.05 % = 0.05 %6.17 %
Sell Signals - 265 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.55 % = -0.17 %-1.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.11 % = -0.07 %-3.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.05 % = -0.08 %-10.15 %
.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.55 % = 0.29 %2.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.11 % = 0.14 %7.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.05 % = 0.65 %82.93 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.43 % minus 0.55 % = 0.88 %7.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.11 % = 0.39 %19.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.05 % = 0.15 %18.71 %
.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 200 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.15 % minus 0.55 % = 0.60 %5.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.11 % = 0.28 %14.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.05 % = 0.12 %14.95 %
Sell Signals - 139 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.55 % = 0.14 %1.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.11 % = 0.03 %1.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.05 % = 0.03 %4.23 %
.
The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.60 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -0.72 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.28 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.07 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.65 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.09 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..



Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for Dow Industrials

Detailed Average Level Analysis for DJIA :



Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2008 by Stock-Predictions.Com
This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Dow Industrials Moving Averages - DJIA