Moving Average Indicators for DJIA

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From the Weekend Report 2/5/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Dow Industrials
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This section analyzes the predictive abilities of several flavors of averaging as applied to the DJIA index. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to DJIA stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




Moving Average Convergence of Dow Industrials
Companies In the News
Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on Nicor Inc., ticker symbol GAS. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning American International Group, Inc. and MicroSoft.

From the News Archive: (2/4/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Illinois Tool Works Inc., Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation, and Briggs and Stratton. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Kodak.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.59 % = 0.20 %1.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.12 % = 0.18 %9.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.06 % = 0.04 %5.36 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.59 % = -0.71 %-6.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.12 % = -0.12 %-6.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.06 % = -0.11 %-13.93 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.59 % = 0.09 %0.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.12 % = 0.12 %6.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.06 % = 0.07 %9.42 %
Sell Signals - 220 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.59 % = -0.03 %-0.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.12 % = 0.11 %5.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.06 % = 0.11 %13.37 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.59 % = 0.13 %1.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.12 % = 0.19 %9.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.06 % = 0.34 %43.21 %
Sell Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.59 % = 0.17 %1.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.12 % = 0.33 %16.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.06 % = 0.35 %44.39 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 681 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.59 % = -0.06 %-0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.12 % = -0.03 %-1.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.06 % = -0.02 %-2.70 %
Sell Signals - 680 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.59 % = -0.02 %-0.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.12 % = 0.03 %1.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.06 % = 0.02 %2.78 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 938 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.59 % = -0.06 %-0.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.12 % = 0.06 %3.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.06 % = 0.07 %8.66 %
Sell Signals - 938 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.59 % = -0.13 %-1.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.12 % = -0.04 %-1.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.06 % = 0.00 %0.29 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 374 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.59 % = -0.08 %-0.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.12 % = 0.09 %4.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.06 % = 0.06 %7.74 %
Sell Signals - 374 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.59 % = -0.09 %-0.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.12 % = -0.04 %-2.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.06 % = -0.08 %-10.28 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 268 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.59 % = -0.16 %-1.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.12 % = 0.06 %2.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.06 % = 0.05 %6.27 %
Sell Signals - 268 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.59 % = -0.14 %-1.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.12 % = -0.07 %-3.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.06 % = -0.08 %-10.57 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.57 % minus 0.59 % = 0.98 %8.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.12 % = 0.45 %22.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.82 % minus 0.06 % = 0.77 %97.21 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.59 % = 0.61 %5.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.12 % = 0.20 %10.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.06 % = -0.01 %-1.35 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.59 % = 0.61 %5.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.12 % = 0.27 %13.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.06 % = 0.10 %12.33 %
Sell Signals - 141 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.59 % = 0.17 %1.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.12 % = 0.01 %0.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.06 % = 0.02 %2.69 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.98 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.71 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.45 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.12 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.77 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.11 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for DJIA Stock Prices