Moving Average Indicators for DRI

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: DRI is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 14.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to DRI stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to DRI stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Wednesday, July 01, 2009: An unfavorable condition has developed with Lexmark International, Inc., ticker symbol LXK. Also, there are breaking events concerning Lennar Corporation (LEN) and The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.76 % minus 1.21 % = 1.55 %	13.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.09 % minus 0.23 % = 0.86 %	43.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.30 % minus 0.12 % = 1.18 %	149.87 %
Sell Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.92 % minus 1.21 % = 0.71 %	6.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.79 % minus 0.23 % = 0.56 %	28.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.12 % = -0.05 %	-6.43 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 97 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.38 % minus 1.21 % = 0.17 %	1.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.23 % = -0.11 %	-5.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.12 % = 0.12 %	15.27 %
Sell Signals - 97 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.22 % minus 1.21 % = 0.01 %	0.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.23 % = 0.01 %	0.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.12 % = 0.12 %	15.30 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.70 % minus 1.21 % = 2.49 %	21.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.68 % minus 0.23 % = 0.45 %	22.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.12 % = 0.13 %	16.76 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.50 % minus 1.21 % = 2.29 %	19.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.71 % minus 0.23 % = 1.48 %	75.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.16 % minus 0.12 % = 1.04 %	132.35 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 337 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.19 % minus 1.21 % = -0.02 %	-0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.23 % = 0.14 %	6.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.12 % = -0.01 %	-1.52 %
Sell Signals - 336 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.93 % minus 1.21 % = -0.28 %	-2.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.23 % = -0.01 %	-0.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.12 % = 0.08 %	10.02 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 462 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.76 % minus 1.21 % = -0.45 %	-3.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.23 % = -0.23 %	-11.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.01 % minus 0.12 % = -0.13 %	-16.72 %
Sell Signals - 462 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.10 % minus 1.21 % = -0.11 %	-0.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.23 % = -0.01 %	-0.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.12 % = -0.01 %	-1.07 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 195 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 1.21 % = -0.66 %	-5.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.32 % minus 0.23 % = -0.56 %	-28.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.25 % minus 0.12 % = -0.37 %	-46.83 %
Sell Signals - 195 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.00 % minus 1.21 % = -0.21 %	-1.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.16 % minus 0.23 % = -0.40 %	-20.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.21 % minus 0.12 % = -0.33 %	-42.04 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 133 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.19 % minus 1.21 % = -0.02 %	-0.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.23 % = -0.06 %	-3.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.01 % minus 0.12 % = -0.13 %	-16.54 %
Sell Signals - 134 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.75 % minus 1.21 % = 0.54 %	4.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.23 % = 0.47 %	23.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.12 % = 0.42 %	53.75 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.61 % minus 1.21 % = 1.40 %	11.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.23 % = 0.60 %	30.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.12 % = -0.14 %	-17.72 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.48 % minus 1.21 % = -1.69 %	-14.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.23 % = -0.28 %	-14.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.12 % = -0.11 %	-14.23 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 105 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 1.21 % = 0.04 %	0.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.23 % = 0.07 %	3.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.12 % = 0.03 %	3.28 %
Sell Signals - 96 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.24 % minus 1.21 % = 1.03 %	8.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.94 % minus 0.23 % = 0.71 %	36.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 0.12 % = 0.49 %	62.22 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.49 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.69 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.86 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.40 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.18 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.33 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..

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