Moving Average Analysis of DVA

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of DaVita Inc.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on DVA stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for DVA.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

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MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	5.15 % minus 1.49 % = 3.66 %	30.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.88 % minus 0.29 % = 1.59 %	80.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 0.15 % = 1.02 %	130.08 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.93 % minus 1.49 % = 1.44 %	12.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.45 % minus 0.29 % = 1.15 %	58.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.95 % minus 0.15 % = 0.80 %	101.70 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 106 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.48 % minus 1.49 % = 0.99 %	8.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.29 % = 0.00 %	0.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.15 % = -0.06 %	-7.73 %
Sell Signals - 106 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.15 % minus 1.49 % = -0.34 %	-2.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.29 % = 0.05 %	2.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.15 % = -0.02 %	-2.83 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.20 % minus 1.49 % = -0.29 %	-2.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.73 % minus 0.29 % = -1.02 %	-51.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.77 % minus 0.15 % = -0.92 %	-116.89 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.43 % minus 1.49 % = -0.06 %	-0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.71 % minus 0.29 % = -1.01 %	-51.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.55 % minus 0.15 % = -0.70 %	-88.36 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 328 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.35 % minus 1.49 % = -0.14 %	-1.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.29 % = -0.09 %	-4.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.15 % = -0.13 %	-16.66 %
Sell Signals - 328 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.28 % minus 1.49 % = -0.21 %	-1.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.29 % = -0.11 %	-5.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.15 % = -0.07 %	-8.76 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 431 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.47 % minus 1.49 % = -0.02 %	-0.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.29 % = 0.24 %	12.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.15 % = 0.26 %	33.57 %
Sell Signals - 430 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.54 % minus 1.49 % = 0.05 %	0.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.29 % = -0.02 %	-0.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.15 % = -0.18 %	-23.24 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.52 % minus 1.49 % = 0.02 %	0.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 0.29 % = 0.56 %	28.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.69 % minus 0.15 % = 0.54 %	69.06 %
Sell Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.04 % minus 1.49 % = 0.55 %	4.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.71 % minus 0.29 % = 0.41 %	21.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.15 % = 0.31 %	38.89 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 111 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.88 % minus 1.49 % = -0.61 %	-5.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.29 % = -0.07 %	-3.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.64 % minus 0.15 % = 0.49 %	61.69 %
Sell Signals - 111 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 1.49 % = -0.97 %	-8.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.18 % minus 0.29 % = -0.48 %	-24.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.23 % minus 0.15 % = -0.38 %	-48.70 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.32 % minus 1.49 % = 1.83 %	15.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.29 % = 0.02 %	1.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 0.15 % = 0.34 %	43.67 %
Sell Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.28 % minus 1.49 % = 1.78 %	15.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.45 % minus 0.29 % = 0.15 %	7.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.15 % = -0.05 %	-5.95 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 131 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.58 % minus 1.49 % = 0.08 %	0.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.29 % = -0.25 %	-12.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.11 % minus 0.15 % = -0.26 %	-32.42 %
Sell Signals - 101 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.02 % minus 1.49 % = -0.47 %	-3.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.64 % minus 0.29 % = 0.34 %	17.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.69 % minus 0.15 % = 0.54 %	68.49 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 3.66 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.97 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.59 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.01 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.02 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.70 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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