Moving Average Indicators for DYN

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

DYN: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Dynegy Inc.:

Different ways of averaging are tested on DYN stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to DYN stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Dynegy Inc.
Companies In the News
In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)



MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.53 % minus 0.71 % = 0.82 %6.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.89 % minus 0.22 % = 1.67 %84.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.46 % minus 0.11 % = 1.36 %172.41 %
Sell Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.09 % minus 0.71 % = -1.80 %-15.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose -2.33 % minus 0.22 % = -2.55 %-129.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.54 % minus 0.11 % = -1.64 %-208.59 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 124 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.71 % = 0.33 %2.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.22 % = -0.21 %-10.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.11 % = -0.42 %-53.04 %
Sell Signals - 124 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.71 % = -0.79 %-6.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.44 % minus 0.22 % = -0.66 %-33.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.25 % minus 0.11 % = -0.35 %-44.78 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.45 % minus 0.71 % = 0.74 %6.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.22 % = -0.03 %-1.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.16 %-20.16 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.71 % = -0.06 %-0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.91 % minus 0.22 % = -1.13 %-57.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.52 % minus 0.11 % = -0.62 %-78.78 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 370 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.46 % minus 0.71 % = 0.75 %6.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.22 % = 0.63 %31.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.73 % minus 0.11 % = 0.62 %79.18 %
Sell Signals - 370 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.47 % minus 0.71 % = 0.76 %6.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.82 % minus 0.22 % = 0.60 %30.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.11 % = 0.49 %62.66 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 521 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.71 % = 0.13 %1.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.22 % = 0.16 %8.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.11 % = 0.06 %8.10 %
Sell Signals - 521 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.71 % = 0.01 %0.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.22 % = 0.04 %2.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.11 % = -0.03 %-3.48 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 223 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.71 % = -0.22 %-1.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.22 % = -0.45 %-22.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.11 % = -0.01 %-1.73 %
Sell Signals - 222 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.82 % minus 0.71 % = 0.11 %0.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.22 % = -0.39 %-19.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.11 % = -0.20 %-24.95 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 127 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.71 % = -0.48 %-4.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.22 % = -0.22 %-10.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.06 %-7.50 %
Sell Signals - 127 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.71 % = -0.83 %-7.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.47 % minus 0.22 % = -0.69 %-35.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.39 % minus 0.11 % = -0.50 %-63.46 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.32 % minus 0.71 % = 0.61 %5.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.22 % = -0.18 %-8.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.11 % = -0.15 %-18.79 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.43 % minus 0.71 % = 1.71 %14.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.22 % = 0.47 %24.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.11 % = -0.13 %-16.54 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 132 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.71 % = 0.32 %2.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.22 % = 0.06 %2.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.11 % = 0.45 %57.50 %
Sell Signals - 129 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.74 % minus 0.71 % = 1.03 %8.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.22 % = 0.17 %8.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.11 % = 0.14 %17.79 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.82 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.80 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.67 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -2.55 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.36 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.64 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for DYN Stock Prices