Moving Average Analysis of EAT

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Brinker International

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to EAT stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to EAT stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

Moving Average Convergence of Brinker International

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Thursday, March 11, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Zimmer Holdings, Inc., ticker symbol ZMH. Also, there are breaking events concerning Pre-Paid Legal (PPD) and The New York Times Company (NYT)

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-2.18 % minus 1.11 % = -3.29 %	-27.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.93 % minus 0.22 % = -1.15 %	-58.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.99 % minus 0.11 % = -1.10 %	-139.13 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 1.11 % = -0.87 %	-7.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.63 % minus 0.22 % = 0.41 %	20.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.11 % = 0.07 %	9.16 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 142 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 1.11 % = 0.03 %	0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.22 % = 0.01 %	0.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.11 % = -0.25 %	-31.53 %
Sell Signals - 143 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.82 % minus 1.11 % = -0.29 %	-2.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.22 % = -0.31 %	-15.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.11 % = -0.10 %	-12.61 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 39 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.39 % minus 1.11 % = -1.50 %	-12.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.61 % minus 0.22 % = -0.83 %	-42.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.76 % minus 0.11 % = -0.87 %	-110.77 %
Sell Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.39 % minus 1.11 % = -1.50 %	-12.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.98 % minus 0.22 % = -1.20 %	-60.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.51 % minus 0.11 % = -0.62 %	-78.67 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 479 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 1.11 % = -0.55 %	-4.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.22 % = -0.05 %	-2.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.11 % = 0.01 %	0.80 %
Sell Signals - 478 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 1.11 % = -0.64 %	-5.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.22 % = -0.06 %	-3.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.11 % = 0.02 %	2.57 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 609 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.59 % minus 1.11 % = -0.52 %	-4.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.22 % = -0.13 %	-6.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.11 % = -0.05 %	-6.18 %
Sell Signals - 609 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.59 % minus 1.11 % = -0.52 %	-4.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.22 % = -0.04 %	-2.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.11 % = 0.05 %	5.89 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 266 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.20 % minus 1.11 % = 0.09 %	0.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.63 % minus 0.22 % = 0.41 %	20.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.11 % = 0.43 %	54.96 %
Sell Signals - 265 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.01 % minus 1.11 % = -0.10 %	-0.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.22 % = 0.08 %	4.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.11 % = 0.14 %	17.73 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 190 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 1.11 % = -0.60 %	-5.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.22 % = 0.19 %	9.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.11 % = 0.15 %	19.55 %
Sell Signals - 190 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 1.11 % = -0.26 %	-2.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.22 % = 0.58 %	29.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.11 % = 0.59 %	75.00 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 1.11 % = -1.23 %	-10.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.22 % = 0.09 %	4.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.11 % = 0.45 %	57.55 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.56 % minus 1.11 % = -1.67 %	-14.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.22 % = -0.27 %	-13.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.11 % = -0.04 %	-4.81 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 175 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.91 % minus 1.11 % = -0.20 %	-1.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.22 % = -0.05 %	-2.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.11 % = 0.08 %	10.24 %
Sell Signals - 157 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 1.11 % = 0.02 %	0.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.22 % = 0.19 %	9.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.11 % = 0.28 %	35.31 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.09 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.67 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.41 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -1.20 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.45 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.62 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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