Moving Average Analysis of EAT

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From the Weekend Report 1/29/2010: EAT is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 5.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to EAT stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to EAT stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Brinker International

Companies In the News

Thursday, February 04, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation and Eastman Kodak.

From the News Archive: (2/3/2010 ) Favorable events happened at C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., PNC Financial Services, and Briggs and Stratton. Meanwhile, bad news came from Northrop Grumman Corporation.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

	.
Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-2.18 % minus 1.08 % = -3.26 %	-27.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.93 % minus 0.21 % = -1.15 %	-58.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.99 % minus 0.11 % = -1.09 %	-138.70 %
Sell Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 1.08 % = -0.83 %	-7.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.63 % minus 0.21 % = 0.42 %	21.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.11 % = 0.08 %	9.59 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 141 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.04 % minus 1.08 % = -0.04 %	-0.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.21 % = 0.00 %	0.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.11 % = -0.25 %	-31.38 %
Sell Signals - 142 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.74 % minus 1.08 % = -0.34 %	-2.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.17 % minus 0.21 % = -0.38 %	-19.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.11 % = -0.19 %	-24.03 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 39 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.39 % minus 1.08 % = -1.47 %	-12.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.61 % minus 0.21 % = -0.83 %	-41.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.76 % minus 0.11 % = -0.87 %	-110.34 %
Sell Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.39 % minus 1.08 % = -1.47 %	-12.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.98 % minus 0.21 % = -1.19 %	-60.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.51 % minus 0.11 % = -0.62 %	-78.24 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 477 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 1.08 % = -0.55 %	-4.69 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.21 % = -0.06 %	-3.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.11 % = -0.02 %	-2.01 %
Sell Signals - 477 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 1.08 % = -0.62 %	-5.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.21 % = -0.05 %	-2.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.11 % = 0.02 %	2.99 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 607 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 1.08 % = -0.51 %	-4.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.21 % = -0.12 %	-6.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.11 % = -0.04 %	-5.58 %
Sell Signals - 606 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 1.08 % = -0.53 %	-4.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.21 % = -0.04 %	-2.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.11 % = 0.05 %	6.27 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 264 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.11 % minus 1.08 % = 0.03 %	0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.60 % minus 0.21 % = 0.39 %	19.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.11 % = 0.43 %	54.66 %
Sell Signals - 263 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.91 % minus 1.08 % = -0.17 %	-1.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.21 % = 0.08 %	3.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.11 % = 0.14 %	17.22 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 190 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 1.08 % = -0.57 %	-4.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.21 % = 0.19 %	9.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.11 % = 0.16 %	19.97 %
Sell Signals - 190 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 1.08 % = -0.23 %	-1.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.21 % = 0.59 %	29.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.11 % = 0.59 %	75.43 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 1.08 % = -1.20 %	-10.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.21 % = 0.09 %	4.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.11 % = 0.46 %	57.98 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.61 % minus 1.08 % = -1.69 %	-14.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.21 % = -0.17 %	-8.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.11 % = -0.01 %	-1.35 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 174 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 1.08 % = -0.23 %	-1.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.21 % = -0.04 %	-2.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.11 % = 0.09 %	11.41 %
Sell Signals - 157 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 1.08 % = 0.06 %	0.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.21 % = 0.19 %	9.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.11 % = 0.28 %	35.74 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.03 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.69 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.39 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -1.19 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.46 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.62 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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Moving Average Analysis for EAT Stock Prices