Moving Average Analysis of ED

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From the Weekend Report 3/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Consolidated Edison, Inc.
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Consolidated Edison, Inc.:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ED stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to ED stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Consolidated Edison, Inc.
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Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Fluor Corporation (NEW) and Zimmer Holdings, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at GameStop Corp. and Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company and Omnicom Group Inc..




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.93 % minus 0.92 % = 1.01 %8.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.18 % = 0.02 %1.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.05 %-6.61 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.41 % minus 0.92 % = -1.32 %-11.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.18 % = -0.21 %-10.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.09 % = -0.09 %-11.09 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 200 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.92 % = 0.04 %0.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.18 % = -0.04 %-2.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %-3.49 %
Sell Signals - 200 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.07 % minus 0.92 % = 0.15 %1.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.18 % = 0.07 %3.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %10.83 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.92 % = -0.04 %-0.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.02 %-1.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.09 % = 0.12 %14.85 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.92 % = -0.94 %-7.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.18 % = 0.17 %8.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.09 % = -0.32 %-40.10 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 696 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.92 % = 0.12 %1.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.18 % = 0.03 %1.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %-2.93 %
Sell Signals - 697 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.02 % minus 0.92 % = 0.10 %0.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.18 % = 0.00 %0.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-0.94 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 958 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.92 % = 0.09 %0.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.18 % = 0.06 %2.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.06 %7.35 %
Sell Signals - 957 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 0.92 % = 0.09 %0.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.18 % = 0.00 %0.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-1.64 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 381 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.48 % minus 0.92 % = 0.56 %4.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.18 % = 0.16 %7.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.11 %14.10 %
Sell Signals - 381 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.37 % minus 0.92 % = 0.46 %3.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.18 % = 0.12 %5.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.09 % = 0.08 %9.65 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 229 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.31 % minus 0.92 % = 0.40 %3.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.18 % = 0.10 %5.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.06 %6.99 %
Sell Signals - 230 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.12 % minus 0.92 % = 0.21 %1.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.18 % = -0.05 %-2.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %5.96 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.92 % = -0.02 %-0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.34 %-17.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.09 % = 0.07 %9.51 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.92 % = -1.07 %-9.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.18 % = -0.22 %-11.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.12 %-14.97 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 286 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 0.92 % = 0.01 %0.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.18 % = 0.19 %9.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.09 % = 0.12 %15.28 %
Sell Signals - 183 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.92 % = 0.13 %1.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.18 % = -0.06 %-3.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.10 %-12.24 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.01 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.32 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.19 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.22 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.12 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.32 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for Consolidated Edison, Inc. Stock Prices - ED