Moving Average Analysis of ED

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From the Weekend Report 1/29/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Consolidated Edison, Inc.
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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to ED stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to ED stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Consolidated Edison, Inc.
Companies In the News
Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on Nicor Inc., ticker symbol GAS. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning American International Group, Inc. and MicroSoft.

From the News Archive: (2/4/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Illinois Tool Works Inc., Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation, and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Kodak.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.92 % minus 0.93 % = 0.99 %8.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.18 % = 0.03 %1.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %-2.40 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.45 % minus 0.93 % = -1.38 %-11.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.18 % = -0.26 %-13.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.09 % = -0.21 %-26.76 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 198 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.93 % = 0.10 %0.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.02 %-0.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.09 % = 0.00 %0.41 %
Sell Signals - 200 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.93 % = 0.23 %1.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.18 % = 0.09 %4.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.09 % = 0.10 %12.96 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.93 % = -0.05 %-0.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.02 %-1.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.09 % = 0.11 %14.56 %
Sell Signals - 37 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.93 % = -0.96 %-8.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.18 % = 0.17 %8.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.09 % = -0.32 %-40.51 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 700 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 0.93 % = 0.06 %0.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.18 % = 0.00 %0.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %-5.10 %
Sell Signals - 701 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.97 % minus 0.93 % = 0.05 %0.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.18 % = -0.02 %-0.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-1.84 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 954 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.93 % = 0.11 %0.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.18 % = 0.06 %2.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.06 %7.14 %
Sell Signals - 953 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.93 % = 0.12 %1.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.18 % = 0.02 %0.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-0.82 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 377 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.45 % minus 0.93 % = 0.53 %4.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.18 % = 0.10 %5.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %6.79 %
Sell Signals - 376 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.37 % minus 0.93 % = 0.45 %3.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.18 % = 0.09 %4.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.09 % = 0.08 %10.25 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 237 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.35 % minus 0.93 % = 0.42 %3.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.18 % = 0.07 %3.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.09 % = 0.01 %1.10 %
Sell Signals - 237 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.93 % = 0.27 %2.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.18 % = -0.04 %-1.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.09 % = 0.04 %5.16 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.93 % = -0.03 %-0.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.34 %-17.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.09 % = 0.07 %8.99 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.93 % = -0.94 %-7.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.18 % = -0.18 %-9.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.08 %-10.61 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 284 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.93 % = -0.06 %-0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.18 % = 0.16 %7.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.09 % = 0.10 %13.16 %
Sell Signals - 187 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 0.93 % = 0.18 %1.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.18 % = -0.08 %-4.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.11 %-14.53 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.99 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.38 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.16 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.26 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.11 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.32 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Consolidated Edison, Inc. Moving Averages - ED